Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NOW IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. LARGE HAIL...WINDS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOT ENCOMPASS AS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOWING SWRLY
FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW...WHICH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AS THAT LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TAKING
THE LOW ON A N/NE PATH THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
LARGER SCALE LIFT...SFC BOUNDARIES AND OTHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH E/SE...BUT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. LOT OF DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KGRI WHERE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071930-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ019-062000-
MITCHELL KS-
235 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
OVER CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. IF
THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY...IT COULD POSE
A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330 PM CDT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST MITCHELL COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3923 9819 3941 9816 3936 9793 3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 201DEG 31KT 3906 9813

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ005-006-017-018-062030-
PHILLIPS KS-OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-
247 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PHILLIPS...SMITH...ROOKS
AND OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF BELLAIRE
TO NEAR CODELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILLIPSBURG...PLAINVILLE...SMITH CENTER...OSBORNE...STOCKTON...
DOWNS...KENSINGTON...NATOMA...AGRA...LEBANON...KIRWIN...WOODSTON...
GAYLORD...ALTON...PORTIS...ZURICH...GLADE...ATHOL...SPEED AND HARLAN.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9936 3931 9952 3951 9960 3953 9958
      3999 9913 4000 9851 3913 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 205DEG 26KT 3991 9864 3922 9913

ROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
336 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TORNADO          8 W IONIA               39.66N 98.50W
05/06/2015                   JEWELL             KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED TORNADO NEAR THE JEWELL AND SMITH
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ017-018-062115-
OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS-
343 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROOKS AND WESTERN
OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 342 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ALTON TO
NEAR NATOMA TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CODELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NATOMA...ALTON...PORTIS AND CODELL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9931 3923 9921 3955 9895 3957 9867
      3913 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 218DEG 38KT 3936 9895 3920 9910 3907 9924

FAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ074-084-062115-
FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-
343 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KEARNEY AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HILDRETH...OR 19 MILES EAST OF HOLDREGE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINDEN...AXTELL...HILDRETH...WILCOX...UPLAND...HEARTWELL AND NORMAN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4066 9917 4058 9872 4056 9872 4024 9889
      4029 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 189DEG 36KT 4033 9903

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             HILDRETH                40.34N 99.05W
05/06/2015  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   PUBLIC

&&

ADP