Tornado Warning 94, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN METROPLEX
FROM WEST TO EAST AND AFFECT TAFS SITES BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR VSBY IN
HEAVY RAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND
EXPECT BY 6PM LOCAL AND 23Z TO SEE STORMS EAST OF TAF SITES. WILL
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND SQUALL LINE...BUT BELIEVE
AIRMASS WILL BE TOO WORKED OVER FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND.

FOR WACO MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LINE AND
WILL SHOW A TEMPO FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15KT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. MAY NEED VCTS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...

WE/RE ISSUING A QUICK MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS
WEST OF I-35 BY NOON TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE HIGH AND ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED. 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS SBCAPE OF 3100 J/KG AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ALTHOUGH A CAP IS PRESENT...IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN
AROUND MIDDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME TORNADOES.
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF RAINFALL COMES DOWN VERY
HARD AND FAST...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROVIDING OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWING A SHORT REPRIEVE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF OUR CWA. HI-RES MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD ENSURE MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. SBCAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 2000-4000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY EVENT. HOWEVER...RESPECTABLE
PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE PLENTY HIGH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF TODAY/S FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN WILL SET US UP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE AS A DRYLINE
SURGES EAST NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
ENSURE THAT JUST ABOUT ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP 30 POPS OVER THE WEST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. GOOD MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...BROADEN AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT
MONDAY. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  66  87  70  85 /  90  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              84  67  86  71  86 /  90  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             77  65  82  68  85 /  90  70  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            79  64  86  69  86 /  90  30  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  65  84  69  86 /  90  40  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            83  66  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           83  66  85  71  88 /  90  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         81  67  85  72  86 /  90  50  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  67  87  70  88 /  90  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  64  88  69  86 /  90  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY RUN OFF AND ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS...TO
HILLSBORO...TO TERRELL...TO PARIS LINE DURING PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND ACT TO ENHANCE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ092-251915-
COOKE TX-
132 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 131 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAKE KIOWA...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COUNTY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...MUENSTER...LANDS...CALLISBURG...LAKE KIOWA AND VALLEY
VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 483 AND 503.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3395 9694 3342 9695 3344 9748 3391 9748
      3383 9746 3382 9738 3388 9733 3386 9733
      3389 9731 3386 9726 3392 9721 3386 9717
      3376 9719 3372 9711 3382 9705 3385 9709
      3384 9703 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 195DEG 36KT 3356 9706

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ103-251930-
DENTON TX-
143 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 143 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ARGYLE...OR NEAR DENTON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENTON...FLOWER MOUND...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...LAKE DALLAS...
SANGER...KRUM...PILOT POINT...ARGYLE...HICKORY CREEK...JUSTIN...
DOUBLE OAK...SHADY SHORES...AUBREY...NORTHLAKE...KRUGERVILLE...CROSS
ROADS...BARTONVILLE...COPPER CANYON AND CORRAL CITY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 468 AND 481.
 INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76 AND 85.
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 457 AND 466.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUICK AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3341 9684 3340 9683 3306 9708 3309 9730
      3343 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 189DEG 34KT 3315 9718

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
147 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     TORNADO          3 E LAMPASAS            31.07N  98.13W
05/25/2015                   LAMPASAS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND 3E OF LAMPASAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ092-251945-
COOKE TX-
202 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 202 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FORESTBURG...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...MUENSTER...LINDSAY...CALLISBURG...LAKE KIOWA AND VALLEY
VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 483 AND 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3395 9695 3342 9695 3344 9748 3390 9748
      3382 9745 3382 9738 3388 9733 3386 9733
      3386 9726 3392 9721 3386 9717 3376 9719
      3372 9711 3382 9705 3385 9709 3384 9703
      3389 9698 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 240DEG 48KT 3354 9744

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
209 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ103-252015-
DENTON TX-
209 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DENTON COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF SANGER TO
NEAR HASLET...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLANO...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
COPPELL...THE COLONY...SOUTHLAKE...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...
TROPHY CLUB...LAKE DALLAS...SANGER...LAKE LEWISVILLE...LITTLE ELM...
ROANOKE...KRUM...PILOT POINT AND ARGYLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 468 AND 481.
 INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 85.
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 466.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3341 9684 3299 9684 3299 9740 3343 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 279DEG 24KT 3341 9733 3300 9739

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
219 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TORNADO          1 N PIDCOKE             31.29N  97.90W
05/25/2015                   CORYELL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO ON 116 NEAR PIDCOKE