Tornado Warning 87, NWS Fort Worth, TX

632 
WWUS54 KFWD 251720
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXC503-251800-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150525T1800Z/
YOUNG TX-
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR YOUNG
COUNTY...

AT 1219 PM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS LOCATED NEAR
GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
YOUNG COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEWCASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9880 3314 9895 3340 9895 3340 9842
      3295 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 226DEG 40KT 3312 9864 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

AJS

443 
WWUS54 KFWD 251732
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXC503-251800-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150525T1800Z/
YOUNG TX-
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR YOUNG
COUNTY...

AT 1231 PM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS LOCATED 8 
MILES NORTHWEST OF BRYSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAHAM...OLNEY AND NEWCASTLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9870 3316 9876 3326 9895 3340 9895
      3340 9842 3295 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 226DEG 40KT 3322 9852 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

AJS

771 
WWUS54 KFWD 251744
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXC503-251800-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150525T1800Z/
YOUNG TX-
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 1244 PM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTH OF BRYSON...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9856 3320 9854 3340 9887 3340 9842
      3316 9843 3295 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 225DEG 36KT 3328 9844 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

AJS

101 
WWUS54 KFWD 251757
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXC503-251806-
/O.EXP.KFWD.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-150525T1800Z/
YOUNG TX-
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN YOUNG COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM
CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3295 9856 3320 9854 3340 9887 3340 9842
      3316 9843 3295 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 226DEG 40KT 3328 9844 

$$

AJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

WE/RE ISSUING A QUICK MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST AREAS
WEST OF I-35 BY NOON TIME AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE HIGH AND ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED. 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS SBCAPE OF 3100 J/KG AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE. ALTHOUGH A CAP IS PRESENT...IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN
AROUND MIDDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME TORNADOES.
FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IF RAINFALL COMES DOWN VERY
HARD AND FAST...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS REGARDING TIMING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EACH MORNING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS NOW LIFTING OVER SW TEXAS
AS EVIDENT BY THE INCREASING STRONG-SEVERE TSRA FROM KMAF TO KDRT
AT SUNRISE. HIGH RES MODELS AGREE ON A LINEAR OR QLCS TYPE OF
COMPLEX DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SPEED OF THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING CONVECTION INTO
THE TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH BEST WINDOW FOR
IFR/TSRA CONDITIONS W/HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING THROUGH 21Z-22Z. THE
LONGER WINDOW IS IN CASE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON A SURGING
DRYING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR/-DZ THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS LIFT AND MIXING INCREASE AFTER 18Z...EXPECT PREVAILING LOW VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH TSRA. VFR WILL HOLD ON THROUGH AT LEAST
MID EVENING BEFORE MVFR ARRIVES BACK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. MORE IFR
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABLE HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.   05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR EL PASO IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROVIDING OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOLLOWING A SHORT REPRIEVE
OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF OUR CWA. HI-RES MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF DAY SHOULD ENSURE MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. SBCAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 2000-4000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY EVENT. HOWEVER...RESPECTABLE
PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE PLENTY HIGH FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF TODAY/S FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN WILL SET US UP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE AS A DRYLINE
SURGES EAST NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WEST AND THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
ENSURE THAT JUST ABOUT ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP 30 POPS OVER THE WEST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. GOOD MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...BROADEN AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT
MONDAY. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  66  87  70  85 /  90  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              84  67  86  71  86 /  90  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             77  65  82  68  85 /  90  70  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            79  64  86  69  86 /  90  30  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  65  84  69  86 /  90  40  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            83  66  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           83  66  85  71  88 /  90  50  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         81  67  85  72  86 /  90  50  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  67  87  70  88 /  90  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  64  88  69  86 /  90  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
324 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY RUN OFF AND ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS...TO
HILLSBORO...TO TERRELL...TO PARIS LINE DURING PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND ACT TO ENHANCE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.