Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  87  70  85  70 /  70  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              70  88  72  85  71 /  60  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             66  82  69  84  69 /  20  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            67  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          67  85  70  85  69 /  50  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            67  88  72  85  71 /  70  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           69  87  71  86  71 /  70  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  86  71  85  71 /  70  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  40  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ118-119.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-280315-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AND ENHANCE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 32.52N  96.80W
05/26/2015                   ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED NEAR RED OAK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
134 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 AM     TSTM WND GST     GROESBECK               31.53N  96.52W
05/27/2015  E60 MPH          LIMESTONE          TX   PUBLIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
135 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ147-148-158-160-162-174-175-270715-
ROBERTSON TX-BELL TX-ANDERSON TX-LEON TX-FREESTONE TX-MILAM TX-
FALLS TX-
135 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FALLS...ANDERSON...BELL...
ROBERTSON...FREESTONE...LEON AND MILAM COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 133 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF PALESTINE
TO TEAGUE TO BREMOND TO TEMPLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMERON AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  ROCKDALE AROUND 215 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEONA...MARQUEZ...
KIRVIN...STREETMAN...JEWETT...NORMANGEE...OAKWOOD...BUCKHOLTS...
MILANO AND SCHWERTNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3151 9574 3132 9566 3109 9576 3096 9626
      3070 9656 3046 9715 3073 9727 3091 9783
      3104 9791 3131 9743 3124 9734 3152 9680
      3122 9660 3125 9654 3141 9624 3180 9649
      3201 9606 3208 9542 3185 9545 3161 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 318DEG 24KT 3186 9550 3174 9595 3137 9632 3095
9714

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ105-118>121-270715-
ROCKWALL-HUNT-DALLAS-TARRANT-KAUFMAN-
148 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH WILL AFFECT
ROCKWALL..DALLAS...SOUTHWESTERN HUNT...NORTHERN KAUFMAN AND TARRANT
COUNTIES...

AT 145 AM CDT...A AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS SOUTH OF A
CLEBURNE TO KAUFMANN LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THESE STORMS WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 245 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DALLAS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...GARLAND...IRVING...GRAND PRAIRIE...
MESQUITE...CARROLLTON...RICHARDSON...MANSFIELD...ROWLETT...EULESS...
DESOTO...BEDFORD...GRAPEVINE...CEDAR HILL...HALTOM CITY...KELLER...
COPPELL AND DUNCANVILLE.

LAT...LON 3257 9608 3257 9755 3299 9754 3295 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 268DEG 47KT 3281 9651

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ142-143-156-157-270800-
LAMPASAS TX-MILLS TX-HAMILTON TX-CORYELL TX-
221 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON...
SOUTHWESTERN CORYELL...CENTRAL LAMPASAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MILLS
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 221 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF GOLDTHWAITE...OR 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN SABA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3155 9851 3160 9797 3120 9798 3124 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 267DEG 24KT 3142 9838

58