Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BETWEEN KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/...KABI
/ABILENE/....AND KMWL /MINERAL WELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WHILE SOME OF THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA ARE
TURNING TO THE RIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THE 02-04Z PERIOD...AND WILL UPDATE LATER AS NEEDED. NOTE THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE OVER 60 MILES WEST OF KDFW...ANVIL
LIGHTNING IS NOTED AS FAR EAST AS TARRANT COUNTY.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT CDT /05Z/
WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG BY 09Z.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 20Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR THE
27/20Z-28/01Z PERIOD.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-280315-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AND ENHANCE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND GST     MIDLOTHIAN              32.48N  96.98W
05/26/2015  M68 MPH          ELLIS              TX   AWOS

            68 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT MIDLOTHIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             7 N COMANCHE            32.00N  98.62W
05/26/2015  E1.75 INCH       COMANCHE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N WAXAHACHIE          32.44N  96.85W
05/26/2015  E67 MPH          ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            67 MPH WIND GUST 3 MILES NORTH OF WAXAHACHIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1022 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND GST     MIDLOTHIAN              32.48N  96.98W
05/26/2015  E72 MPH          ELLIS              TX   AWOS

            72 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED IN MIDLOTHIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1023 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ122-123-270415-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
1023 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND
SOUTHEASTERN RAINS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1023 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GRAND SALINE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...FRUITVALE AND EDOM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 528 AND 542.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3235 9566 3274 9597 3281 9577 3276 9564
      3272 9564 3268 9559 3248 9560 3242 9552
      3241 9550 3239 9549 3237 9547 3237 9546
      3236 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 301DEG 14KT 3270 9575

15-BAIN