Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BETWEEN KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/...KABI
/ABILENE/....AND KMWL /MINERAL WELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WHILE SOME OF THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA ARE
TURNING TO THE RIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THE 02-04Z PERIOD...AND WILL UPDATE LATER AS NEEDED. NOTE THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE OVER 60 MILES WEST OF KDFW...ANVIL
LIGHTNING IS NOTED AS FAR EAST AS TARRANT COUNTY.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT CDT /05Z/
WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG BY 09Z.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 20Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR THE
27/20Z-28/01Z PERIOD.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO
GOLDTHWAITE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AND ENHANCE THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO
GOLDTHWAITE.

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