Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
252 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD EASILY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. ONCE AGAIN...THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHEN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ100-272030-
YOUNG TX-
246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAHAM AND NEWCASTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9875 3318 9842 3295 9853 3296 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 219DEG 14KT 3305 9866

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ100-101-116-272200-
PALO PINTO TX-JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
410 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG...NORTHWESTERN
PALO PINTO AND SOUTHWESTERN JACK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 9856 3310 9818 3282 9838 3291 9858
      3295 9858 3296 9869 3296 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 287DEG 8KT 3304 9850

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ141-143-272200-
COMANCHE TX-HAMILTON TX-
415 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND CENTRAL
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 9823 3192 9821 3192 9820 3194 9817
      3196 9811 3178 9796 3163 9826 3182 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 234DEG 8KT 3178 9825

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ130>132-143-272245-
HOOD TX-HAMILTON TX-ERATH TX-SOMERVELL TX-
458 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOOD...NORTHERN
HAMILTON...WESTERN SOMERVELL AND SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HICO...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANBURY...PECAN PLANTATION...GLEN ROSE...HICO...DINOSAUR VALLEY
STATE PARK...OAK TRAIL SHORES AND TOLAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLOODING OR NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 9830 3254 9790 3239 9763 3205 9794
      3202 9800 3200 9799 3193 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 212DEG 33KT 3205 9809

JLDUNN