Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

579 
WWUS54 KEWX 290242
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXC465-290315-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-150529T0315Z/
VAL VERDE TX-
942 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 942 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF FLOUR MILLS TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JUNO TO 6 MILES NORTH OF PUMPVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNO...OSMAN...PANDALE...PUMPVILLE...HACKBERRY CROSSING AND BAKERS
CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 10176 3029 10070 3026 10070 2998 10097
      2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 308DEG 28KT 3027 10068 3008 10122 3004 10173 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  70  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  70  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  60  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  80  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  69  83  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  70  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  60  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  60  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  70  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  60  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
108 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291815-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
108 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7PM TONIGHT UNTIL
7AM FRIDAY MORNING...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF SAN ANGELO COUNTY WARNING AREA AND PUSHES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH 3+ INCHES LOCALLY ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO
THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE
AREA...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS.

ADDITIONALLY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
428 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TORNADO          5 SSE DRIPPING SPRINGS  30.12N  98.06W
05/23/2015                   HAYS               TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF-0 DAMAGE...TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BETWEEN 853-900 PM
            CDT...5.8 MILE PATH LENGTH...100 YARDS MAX WIDTH...85
            MPH MAX WIND SPEED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500579

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
543 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TORNADO          4 SSW BALCONES HEIGHTS  29.44N  98.58W
05/23/2015                   BEXAR              TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF-1 DAMAGE...TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BETWEEN 816-817 PM
            CDT...0.4 MILE PATH LENGTH...150 YARDS MAX WIDTH...100
            MPH MAX WIND SPEED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500580

HAMPSHIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
835 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ183-290215-
VAL VERDE TX-
835 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 835 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES EAST OF TERRELL
COUNTY GAS PLANT TO 22 MILES SOUTH OF SANDERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANGTRY...OSMAN...PANDALE...PUMPVILLE AND HACKBERRY CROSSING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3029 10176 3029 10108 2980 10153 2980 10157
      2977 10158 2977 10163 2976 10164 2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 263DEG 35KT 3043 10165 2983 10250

MO