River Flood Warning 69, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

827 
WGUS84 KEWX 300224
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
924 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Llano River at Llano Affecting Llano County
  Pedernales River At Johnson City Affecting Blanco County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC299-300254-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-150530T0716Z/
/LLAT2.1.ER.150529T1107Z.150529T1415Z.150529T1656Z.NO/
924 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Llano River at Llano.
* At  9:00 PM Friday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is now well below flood stage and will continue falling.
  This is the last forecast for this event.
  
&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Llano              10   10    7.7   Fri 09 PM   7.0   4.5   3.6   3.3   3.0


&&

LAT...LON 3067 9896 3075 9896 3078 9854 3067 9843
      3060 9841 3071 9858             

$$

TXC031-300254-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150530T0818Z/
/JOCT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for the Pedernales River At Johnson City.
* At  9:00 PM Friday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level crested at 13.1 feet Friday morning. This is below
  flood stage. The river level is now well below bankfull and will continue
  falling.
  This is the last forecast for this event.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Low water crossings upstream flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 6AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Johnson City       13   14   12.2   Fri 09 PM  11.9  11.7  11.4  11.2  11.1


&&

LAT...LON 3026 9841 3034 9841 3037 9818 3046 9809
      3041 9802 3031 9812             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAINS WILL END IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN
FLOODED DUE TO EARLIER HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL WANE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW SPRING BRANCH      29.85N  98.42W
05/29/2015                   COMAL              TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1.2 FEET OF WATER REPORTED OVER ROLLING CREEK ROAD AT
            FAWN LANE. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS IN COMAL COUNTY CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500593

MCO