Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

606 
WWUS54 KEWX 290634
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
134 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TXC013-163-493-290715-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-150529T0715Z/
ATASCOSA TX-FRIO TX-WILSON TX-
134 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR ATASCOSA...FRIO AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 134 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF LA VERNIA TO NEAR CHARLOTTE TO 6 MILES
WEST OF DIVOT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...DILLEY...JOURDANTON...POTEET...
POTH...CHARLOTTE...STOCKDALE...CHRISTINE...CAMPBELLTON...KOSCIUSKO...
MOORE...LYTLE...ST. HEDWIG...LA VERNIA...FRIO TOWN...GOLDFINCH...
NORTH PEARSALL AND WEST PEARSALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2862 9833 2864 9834 2864 9941 2909 9941
      2909 9881 2925 9879 2911 9841 2944 9814
      2936 9811 2938 9784 2935 9786 2922 9773
      2888 9819 2879 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 329DEG 30KT 2937 9798 2891 9866 2879 9936 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ALLEN

051 
WWUS54 KEWX 290707
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TXC013-163-493-290716-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-150529T0715Z/
ATASCOSA TX-FRIO TX-WILSON TX-
207 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ATASCOSA...FRIO AND WILSON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2862 9833 2864 9834 2864 9941 2909 9941
      2909 9881 2925 9879 2911 9841 2944 9814
      2936 9811 2938 9784 2935 9786 2922 9773
      2888 9819 2879 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 356DEG 30KT 2937 9798 2891 9866 2879 9936 

$$

ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KAUS TO KTPL LINE AT INITIAL
29/06Z TIME OF TAFS. WILL CARRY WINDS OF 25G45KTS AND 1SM +TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES. THEN TRANSITION TO 5SM -TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF -RA WITH OCNL TS FOLLOWS THE SQUALL LINE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE A MIX OF IFR TO VFR. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT. N-NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE AND THEN TURN TO SE-S BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  85  67  83  66 /  30  60  50  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  84  65  82  64 /  30  60  50  40  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  83  66 /  30  60  50  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  82  65  80  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  86  68  86  69 /  20  50  60  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  83  65  81  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  85  67  84  67 /  30  50  50  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  67  82  66 /  30  60  50  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  85  68  83  67 /  30  60  60  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  83  68 /  30  60  50  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  68  84  68 /  30  50  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1138 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291815-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1138 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED AND WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND AGGRAVATE ONGOING
RIVER FLOODING. ALSO...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1113 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE LLANO             30.78N  98.66W
05/28/2015  M61 MPH          LLANO              TX   AWOS

            MEASURED BY KAQ0 AWOS AT LLANO MUNI AIRPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500582

LJH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ202>204-217>219-290515-
ZAVALA TX-MEDINA TX-MAVERICK TX-FRIO TX-KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-
1123 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAVERICK...SOUTHWESTERN MEDINA...
ZAVALA...SOUTHERN KINNEY...NORTHWESTERN FRIO AND UVALDE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF TARPLEY TO
8 MILES WEST OF CLINE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CIENEGAS TERRACE...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE PASS...UVALDE...SPOFFORD...LA PRYOR...QUEMADO...BATESVILLE...
SABINAL...FRIO TOWN...D'HANIS...DARLING...PALOMA...BLEWETT...
CONCAN...KNIPPA...UTOPIA...RADAR BASE...GARNER STATE PARK...WASHER...
UVALDE ESTATES AND ROSITA NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2866 10050 2880 10053 2883 10055 2883 10058
      2890 10060 2891 10064 2909 10067 2917 10078
      2920 10077 2924 10080 2924 10076 2926 10076
      2928 10021 2963 9968 2963 9944 2959 9933
      2900 9917 2864 10012 2863 10045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 353DEG 44KT 2963 9941 2933 10021 2930 10104

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW HUNT              30.07N  99.36W
05/28/2015                   KERR               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE LOW WATER CROSSINGS CLOSED ON FM 1340 WEST OF
            HUNT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500583

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARBLE FALLS            30.58N  98.27W
05/29/2015                   BURNET             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMBS REPORTED ON HWY 281 NEAR MARBLE FALLS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500584

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRANITE SHOALS          30.59N  98.38W
05/29/2015  E60 MPH          BURNET             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500585

LJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1249 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND GST     LACKLAND AFB            29.38N  98.63W
05/29/2015  M71 MPH          BEXAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY HAND HELD ANEMOMETER...5 INCH THICK TREE
            LIMBS DOWN ON ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500586

LJH