Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front's slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren't out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can't be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NEAR
 THE IOWA BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS
 STORMS.

 THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS
 WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
 TORRENTIAL RAIN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS
 SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN THERE WILL BE
 SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             5 S HOPKINS             40.48N 94.82W
08/02/2015  M1.50 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MOZ005-006-030600-
HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
1217 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MERCER AND NORTHEASTERN
HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1217 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EAGLEVILLE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...MERCER...EAGLEVILLE...CAINSVILLE...BLYTHEDALE...
PLEASANTON AND MODENA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 107 AND
114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 9352 4049 9350 4029 9368 4050 9402
      4051 9404 4058 9396 4058 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 304DEG 24KT 4052 9388

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             HOPKINS                 40.55N 94.82W
08/02/2015  E0.88 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JWELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MOZ002-004-012-030630-
GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-ANDREW MO-
105 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN GENTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM
CDT...

AT 105 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF STANBERRY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUILFORD AND REA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4018 9480 4023 9466 4012 9449 4003 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 334DEG 21KT 4016 9470

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             MARYVILLE               40.34N 94.87W
08/03/2015  E0.88 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JWELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
237 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MOZ002-004-012-030800-
GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-ANDREW MO-
237 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN GENTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

AT 237 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RAVENWOOD...OR NEAR STANBERRY...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANBERRY...CONCEPTION JUNCTION...CLYDE...FORD CITY AND CONCEPTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 9473 4034 9456 4011 9439 4004 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 339DEG 18KT 4027 9464

CUTTER