Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 3, 2015Mercer County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Aug 3, 2015, 12:17 AM CDT for Mercer County, Missouri. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 3, 2015, 12:17 AM CDT (05:17 UTC)
Expired: Aug 3, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Mercer County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1718 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 2, 10:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 10:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front's slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren't out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can't be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Convection to the northeast will send a gust front over the KC area
around midnight. This will bring northeasterly winds, which could
gust up to around 20kts. At this point, convection along the boundary
is not likely during the overnight hours. Cloud cover will continue
to dissipate overnight as a cold front slowly works its way over the
area. Will see variable winds during the early morning hours before
transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Additional
convection is possible overnight Monday, but should hold off through
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 2, 5:06 AM CDT, 19 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NEAR
 THE IOWA BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS
 STORMS.

 THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS
 WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
 TORRENTIAL RAIN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS
 SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN THERE WILL BE
 SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 10:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MOZ031-030400-
CARROLL MO-
1035 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1034 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRAYMER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HALE...BOSWORTH...BOGARD...TINA AND STET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3936 9375 3941 9376 3961 9375 3961 9327
      3956 9327 3954 9326 3954 9328 3950 9327
      3947 9326 3947 9323 3946 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 336DEG 27KT 3959 9367

LG

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 10:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MOZ023-024-032-030415-
LIVINGSTON MO-CHARITON MO-LINN MO-
1043 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHWESTERN LINN AND NORTHWESTERN CHARITON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

AT 1042 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HALE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKFIELD...BRUNSWICK...MEADVILLE...HALE...LACLEDE...WHEELING...
MENDON...LUDLOW...SUMNER...ROTHVILLE...TRIPLETT...AVALON AND DAWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3943 9314 3945 9322 3947 9322 3947 9326
      3954 9328 3954 9326 3961 9328 3961 9375
      3969 9376 3986 9307 3956 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 316DEG 29KT 3964 9329

LG

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 10:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MOZ002-003-030430-
WORTH MO-NODAWAY MO-
1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WORTH AND NORTHEASTERN
NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1047 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ATHELSTAN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANT CITY...HOPKINS...IRENA...SHERIDAN...PARNELL AND PICKERING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9442 4046 9431 4041 9482 4057 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 331DEG 9KT 4055 9463

LG

Local storm report, Aug 2, 11:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     HAIL             1 N HOPKINS             40.57N 94.82W
08/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING NOW

&&

SBLAIR

Local storm report, Aug 2, 11:47 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             5 S HOPKINS             40.48N 94.82W
08/02/2015  M1.50 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 12:17 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MOZ005-006-030600-
HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
1217 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MERCER AND NORTHEASTERN
HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1217 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EAGLEVILLE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...MERCER...EAGLEVILLE...CAINSVILLE...BLYTHEDALE...
PLEASANTON AND MODENA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 107 AND
114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 9352 4049 9350 4029 9368 4050 9402
      4051 9404 4058 9396 4058 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 304DEG 24KT 4052 9388

LG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 2, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan	50 min
Aug 2, 8:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Putnam, Sullivan	29 min
Aug 2, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Harrison	37 min
Aug 2, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Linn, Macon, Sullivan	32 min
Aug 2, 8:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway, Worth	42 min
Aug 2, 8:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Mercer	49 min
Aug 2, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Linn, Macon, Randolph	34 min
Aug 2, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway, Worth	51 min
Aug 2, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Livingston	43 min
Aug 2, 9:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway, Worth	6 hr
Aug 2, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Linn, Livingston	30 min
Aug 2, 10:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Carroll	25 min
Aug 2, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Livingston	32 min
Aug 2, 10:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Worth	43 min
Aug 2, 11:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway, Worth	42 min
Aug 2, 11:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway	45 min
Aug 3, 12:05 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway	6 hr
Aug 3, 12:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Nodaway	48 min
Aug 3, 1:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Andrew	25 min
Aug 3, 1:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, DeKalb	34 min
Aug 3, 2:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Gentry	23 min
Aug 3, 4:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Nodaway	7 days
Aug 3, 6:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	DeKalb	23 min
Aug 3, 7:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Clinton	28 min
Aug 3, 11:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Andrew, DeKalb	46 min
Aug 3, 11:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Daviess	37 min
Aug 3, 11:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb	37 min
Aug 3, 11:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Harrison	35 min
Aug 3, 11:45 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Daviess, Harrison	3 hr
Aug 3, 12:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Daviess	30 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.