Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front's slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren't out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can't be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A line of convection along a frontal boundary is approaching the area
from the northwest. These storms should weaken as they move into the
region, but should still hold together long enough to impact the KC
area with gusty winds for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, winds
will become variable by the early morning hours before turning
southerly by the afternoon. Scattered low-level clouds will begin to
develop and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NEAR
 THE IOWA BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS
 STORMS.

 THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS
 WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
 TORRENTIAL RAIN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS
 SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN THERE WILL BE
 SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                40.52N 94.61W
08/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       WORTH              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACON                   39.74N 92.47W
08/02/2015                   MACON              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOCKING ROAD IN TOWN OF MACON

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
952 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE JAMESPORT          40.02N 93.75W
08/02/2015  E60 MPH          GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 6 AND ROAD WW

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
956 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NE MACON             39.84N 92.34W
08/02/2015  E55 MPH          MACON              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT GATHERED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1027 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE LOCK SPRINGS       39.89N 93.72W
08/02/2015  E60 MPH          LIVINGSTON         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WINDS ONE MILE WEST OF ROUTE U AND FOUR MILES
            NORTH HIGHWAY 190

&&

SBLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MOZ031-030400-
CARROLL MO-
1035 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1034 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRAYMER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HALE...BOSWORTH...BOGARD...TINA AND STET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3936 9375 3941 9376 3961 9375 3961 9327
      3956 9327 3954 9326 3954 9328 3950 9327
      3947 9326 3947 9323 3946 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 336DEG 27KT 3959 9367

LG