Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Kansas City, MO

130 
WWUS53 KEAX 030226
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
926 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MOC147-227-030235-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-150803T0230Z/
WORTH MO-NODAWAY MO-
926 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PLEASANT HILL.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NODAWAY AND WORTH COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4057 9450 4048 9443 4047 9444 4036 9484
      4036 9485 4057 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 336DEG 13KT 4057 9470 

$$

LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

Very warm temperatures and locally high moisture have been the main
focus this afternoon, resulting in heat indices climbing into the
mid 90s to lower 100s throughout the region. Surface heating has
also resulted in steep low-level lapse rates and the recent
development of isolated cu, but weak upper-level subsidence and a
lack of surface focus, in addition to a weakness in lapse rates
above 850 mb indicated on ACARS soundings, has so far squelched any
potential deep convective initiation across the region. A weak cold
front dropping southward across the region later this evening could
provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the
front's slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in
instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the
majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate.
Have delayed and reduced PoPs for this evening and tonight, and
pulled any mention of storms east after midnight.

A weak wave may push down on the nose of surface high pressure and
the northern edge of the elevated thermal ridge on Monday, fueling
storm development from eastern Nebraska through northern MO Monday
afternoon through the early evening. Storm chances are relatively
low, but a few isolated storms aren't out of the question as this
weak feature pushes through the area. The aforementioned cold front
will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday,
although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA
are still in question. This boundary will become the focus for
convective activity in the days that follow.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are a blend of extremes
rather than a true forecast, and represent an astounding range of
possibilities depending on the position of the stalled frontal
boundary and clouds/precipitation associated with said boundary.
Greater than 50 PoPs seem reasonable Tuesday through at least the
first half of Wednesday as a strong, slow-moving shortwave trough
passes over the front, and at least 30 PoPs can't be ruled out
stretching through Thursday depending on how long the front lingers
in the region and how quickly the Tuesday/Wednesday wave departs. In
the wake of the system late in the work week through the coming
weekend, temperatures will be slow to recover but precipitation
chances will generally decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A line of convection along a frontal boundary is approaching the area
from the northwest. These storms should weaken as they move into the
region, but should still hold together long enough to impact the KC
area with gusty winds for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, winds
will become variable by the early morning hours before turning
southerly by the afternoon. Scattered low-level clouds will begin to
develop and persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NEAR
 THE IOWA BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS
 STORMS.

 THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS
 WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
 TORRENTIAL RAIN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS
 SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN THERE WILL BE
 SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E POLLOCK             40.36N 93.03W
08/02/2015                   SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH BROKEN...50 MPH WINDS
            ESTIMATED

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
829 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N GREEN CASTLE        40.29N 92.88W
08/02/2015  E60 MPH          SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED LEADING WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
834 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S GREEN CITY          40.25N 92.95W
08/02/2015                   SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB SNAPPED

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E MILAN               40.20N 93.10W
08/02/2015  E60 MPH          SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 55 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

SBLAIR