Small Craft Advisory 142, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS
ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84
HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS
MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER
BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY
AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO
SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO
LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST
INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT
LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM
SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS
A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM
COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND
CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST
SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT
PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z
PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE
WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST
AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS
INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

&&

SDB SEP 15