Gale Warning 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

767 
FZAK51 PAFG 232306
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-241230-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 994 MB LOW JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF BARROW AS A 986 MB LOW BY 4PM THU AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL
CHUKCHI SEA BY 4PM THU...MOVING TO BARROW AS A 989 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 992 MB LOW BY 4AM SAT.

$$

PKZ225-241230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.THU...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. FOG. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-241230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-241230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-241230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-241230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
306 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SEP 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS
ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84
HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS
MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER
BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY
AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO
SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO
LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO
150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS
TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST
INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM
POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT
LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM
SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS
A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM
COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND
CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST
SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT
PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z
PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE
WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST
AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS
INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

&&

SDB SEP 15