Gale Warning 72, NWS Fairbanks, AK

070 
FZAK69 PAFG 241220
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-250030-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 986 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO A
992 MB LOW 400 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY NOON FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ500-250030-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY NOON.RNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING 
TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-250030-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-250030-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

RF SEP 15

189 
FZAK69 PAFG 241220 CCA
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-250030-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 986 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO A
992 MB LOW 400 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY NOON FRIDAY. A 987
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO A 990 MB LOW NEAR BARROW BY NOON
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A 993 MB CENTER 100 MILES
NORTH OF POINT THOMPSON BY 10 PM FRIDAY.


$$

PKZ500-250030-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY NOON.RNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING 
TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-250030-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-250030-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
420 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

RF SEP 15

354 
FZAK69 PAFG 242236
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-251345-
236 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
DOUBLE 988 MB LOW CENTERS...ONE 300 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL
WEAKEN TO A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SECOND LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL WEAKEN TO A
990 MB LOW NEAR BARROW BY NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER EASTERN SIBERIA FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ500-251345-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. FOG IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-251345-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-251345-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

CF/JK SEP 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
THEN PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND MAINLAND ALASKA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
BE FLAT TOPPED DUE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IT ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THU THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL BRING A STORMY AND
WET PATTERN TO NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FLAT TOPED LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING COOL AND WET SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE SE INTERIOR WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL AND
DRY WITH CHINOOK CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE ALCAN BORDER THU PM. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIMINISH THU.

A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA THU PM...TO WAINWRIGHT TO MCGRATH BY 4AM FRI...AND
TO BARTER ISLAND TO TOK BY 4PM FRI. THERE ARE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM THAT WERE FED IN FROM A FORMER
TROPICAL STORM THAT WILL CAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
WITH UP TO ONE FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET. STRONG DYNAMICS AND
WINDS ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE DISCUSSION WILL ADD MORE INFO.

SNOW LEVELS AT SURFACE OVER INTERIOR AND 2000-3000 FT ALONG THE
WEST COAST. RISING TO 2-3000 FT WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE TONIGHT AND
SW INTERIOR...AND TO 2-3000 FT WESTERN INTERIOR THU...CENTRAL
INTERIOR THU NIGHT. BY FRI SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 2-3000 FT IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...WHILE FALLING BACK TO THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO
BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT.

A 994 MB LOW JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW AS A 986 MB LOW BY 4PM THU AND THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL MOVE TO
POINT LAY TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL BY 4AM THU...TO WAINWRIGHT TO
GALENA TO ANVIK BY 4PM THU...TO DEADHORSE TO TANANA TO MCGRATH BY
4AM FRI AND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION BY
4PM FRI. BELOW 2000 FEET EXPECT .50-1.00 INCH OF RAIN WITH
FRONT...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SW FACING SLOPES. EXPECT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW FROM 2000-3000 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES WET SNOW. ABOVE 3000
FT EXPECT 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
WILL ISSUE SPS ABOUT THIS. NOW HAVE SOUTH WINDS 30-40KT ALONG
FRONT IN NW AK. EXPECT SW WINDS 25KT ALONG FRONT ALONG WEST COAST
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRI. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER SUMMITS.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL
CHUKCHI SEA BY 4PM THU...MOVING TO BARROW AS A 989 MB LOW BY 4PM
FRI...AND TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 992 MB LOW BY 4AM
SAT. A TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
THU...TO WAINWRIGHT TO THE BERING STRAIT BY 4AM FRI...AND TO
BARROW TO TANANA TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM FRI. EXPECT ALL
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG NW FACING
SLOPES. EXPECT NW WINDS 30-40 KT WITH THIS FRONT OVER NW AK THU
NIGHT AND FRI AND 15-25 KT WITH IT IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 4PM THU THEN START TO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA ON A FURTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN THE NAM AND ECMF. FAVOR THE GFS ON THIS FEATURE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ZONE 207 KIVALINA TO POINT HOPE TODAY THROUGH FRI AM.
HIGH SURF ZONES 207 AND 209 SHISHMAREF DEERING THU EVENING
THROUGH FRI EVENING.
MINOR COAST FLOOD POTENTIAL ZONE 209 THU EVENING THROUGH FRI
EVENING.
HIGH SURF POTENTIAL ZONES 201 FRI.
MODERATE SURF POTENTIAL ZONE 202 FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.50-1.00 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREAS NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SO RIVERS WILL RISE THROUGH WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ210.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ209.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

JB SEP 15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
301 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

AKZ218>223-225-226-240115-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...FORT YUKON...
VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...
CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...
TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...
BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...
MINERAL LAKE
301 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR...

A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HEAVY
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WELL.

AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 2000 FEET THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY RAIN. BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND 3000 FEET IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW.
ABOVE 3000 FEET THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WITH
UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE AND HEAVY DRIFTING.

THIS STORM COULD MAKE TRAVEL OVER HIGH ELEVATION SUMMITS DIFFICULT
ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD AFFECT SUMMITS OF THE STEESE...ELLIOTT AND
DALTON HIGHWAYS. PEOPLE TRAVELING THROUGH THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE
ALERT AS THE STORM NEARS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BLOW TREES OVER AND COULD DAMAGE POWER LINES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS STORM...SO THE SNOW
LEVEL AND AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS THE TIMING...MAY VARY.