Storm Warning 188, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 13, 2015, 2:58 PM AKST (23:58 UTC)

Expired

Dec 14, 2015, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

534 
FZAK52 PAFC 132358
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141230-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 940 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL TRACK TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF GAMBELL AT 961 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 60 NM NORTH OF
GAMBELL AT 982 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 1003 MB LOW DEVELOPS 210 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA MON MORNING AND MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY AT 996 MB TUE
MORNING. A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS 250 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141230-
BRISTOL BAY-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT EXCEPT 26 FT FROM PORT MOLLER
E.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 38 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 33
FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141230-
UNALASKA BAY-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 40 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 39 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29
FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 39 FT SUBSIDING TO 32 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
35 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
33 FT SUBSIDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 37 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 13, 6:03 AM AKST, 8 hours 55 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
603 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD THIS MORNING...WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND A
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION OVER THE BERING
SEA. BUOYS HAVE ANALYZED THIS STORM INTO THE HIGH 920 HPA
RANGE...MAKING THIS POWERFUL STORM ONE OF THE STRONGEST ON RECORD
IN THE BERING SEA. MOREOVER...ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES HAVE REMOTELY
MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER OPEN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 80
KNOTS...VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEAS HAVE BEEN
MEASURED BY BUOYS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IN EXCESS OF 50
FEET. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS OF BOTH POLAR ORBITING
AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF
A "SCORPIONS TAIL" (AKA STING JET) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THIS IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE FEATURE...A REGION OF VERY
INTENSE LOCALIZED DOWNWARD AND OUTWARD MOVING WINDS...HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH ON ADAK
ISLAND...MEASURED BY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
IMPACTING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SHEMYA...AND MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BERING EXCEPT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING. ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...THE
WEATHER IS MUCH MILDER AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...LEAVING WEAK OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AND
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD COOK INLET INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE
IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE BERING CYCLONE...WHICH IS
PROGGED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY. THIS DISCREPANCY HAS
AN IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WOULD BE SNOW THREATS ALL ALONG THE COAST INTO PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR NOW...WITH THE GFS BEING A LARGE
OUTLIER...AND WITH THE SENSITIVITY OF THE PATTERN TO SMALL MODEL
ERRORS...THIS FEATURE WILL BE HANDLED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE BERING SEA STORM WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AFFECTING KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. BY TONIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MON AND MON NIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE. IT WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT SWINGS NORTH. SNOW
AND WIND INTENSITY PEAK TODAY AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WINTER PRODUCTS REMAIN FOR THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW CHANGES OVER TO SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE WINTRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH THE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERLY LIMITING THE WARMING INLAND. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING TO
THE COAST LATE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE BERING LOW LIFTS NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES MOVES IN FROM THE
BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING. WINDS TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS THE LOW
FILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AS THE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL BERING. COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES RETURNS ACROSS THE
BERING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY THE
SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVE IN. THE
MORE EASTERLY SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING LIES WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS FASTER AND PUSHES THE
LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE EC AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MOVE THE
LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
WESTERN GULF TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER WINDS FOR THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EC AND GEM BEING FASTER THAN THE SLOWER GFS. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TAKES
A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191 195
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
         STORM WARNING 185 180 178 171 165 155
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 185
         GALE WARNING 181 160 150

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DK

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.