Storm Warning 187, NWS Anchorage, AK

534 
FZAK52 PAFC 132358
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141230-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 940 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL TRACK TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF GAMBELL AT 961 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 60 NM NORTH OF
GAMBELL AT 982 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 1003 MB LOW DEVELOPS 210 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA MON MORNING AND MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY AT 996 MB TUE
MORNING. A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS 250 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141230-
BRISTOL BAY-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT EXCEPT 26 FT FROM PORT MOLLER
E.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 38 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 33
FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141230-
UNALASKA BAY-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 40 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 39 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29
FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 39 FT SUBSIDING TO 32 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
35 FT SUBSIDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
33 FT SUBSIDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 37 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
258 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
443 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA IS WOBBLING
ITS WAY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN A GENERALLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ARCTIC AIR MASS SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGE
WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVING OVER TOP OF IT WILL HELP KICK
THIS LOW EASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY IS A VERY DEEP LOW THAT CONTINUES
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY NEAR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE AS IMPRESSIVE AS CAN BE.
THE LOW DEVELOPED WITHIN A SUBTROPICAL JET COUPLET (LEFT EXIT
REGION OF ONE JET STREAK/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER) AND A
POLAR JET STREAK COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS NOW MERGED IN WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS IS
ADVECTING DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SYSTEM HELPING TO DEEPEN IT
EVEN FURTHER. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 940 MB OR LOWER AS OF LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING SEA ARE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE (NOW) OCCLUDING
FRONT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS PRECIP FIRST ARRIVES...SO
SOME AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW. FOR
SHEMYA...WHICH IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL BE
ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
RIGHT NOW...BUT AS WINDS BACK AND TEMPS DROP A BIT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TODAY TO GO ALONG
WITH THE HIGH WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
AND MANY OF THE SMALLER DETAILS AS WELL....SO OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WITH A FAST MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING SNOW PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION...WHICH
WILL BE KEY TO DISTRIBUTION OF WIND AND PRECIP IN THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE OF SEWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON A WEATHER FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF AS IT MOVES THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION. BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTLINE BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTLINE BEFORE ENTERING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL RECEIVE
SNOW AS THIS FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. THE PORTAGE AND
WHITTIER AREA WILL HAVE RECEIVE ALL SNOW WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING SNOW GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND ONTO THE MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST EFFECT WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST...PROMPTING A BLIZZARD WARNING. SOON AFTER...SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO FALL FURTHER LIMITING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING INLAND. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND BRING TEMPERATURE UP NEAR
FREEZING...ENDING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT.

A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR A BIT MORE SNOW IN THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE
SHOULD SEE FAR LESS ACCUMULATING SNOW...ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS WILL CREATE A BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD...MAINLY INLAND BUT SOME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN CAPES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES QUICKLY INTO THE INTERIOR AND WEAKENS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE SHOWERY REGIME WILL TAKE IT'S PLACE WITH A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT WILL BE LATER THIS
EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY CHANNELED TERRAIN NEAR ADAK WHERE GUSTS TO CLOSE
TO 100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...FIRST BRINGING
SNOW...THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BEFORE A SHOWERY REGIME
SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND UMNAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEAKENS IN THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONGER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY THE
SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVE IN. THE
MORE EASTERLY SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING LIES WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS FASTER AND PUSHES THE
LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE EC AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MOVE THE
LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
WESTERN GULF TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER WINDS FOR THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EC AND GEM BEING FASTER THAN THE SLOWER GFS. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TAKES
A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191 195.
 BLIZZARD WARNING 155 (COAST).
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 161.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WARNING 170 173 174 175 176 177 178.
 STORM WARNING 155 165 171 172 179 180 181 185.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 125 129 130 131 132 150 160.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 160 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1031 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ADAK STATION            51.84N 176.64W
12/12/2015  M117 MPH                            AK   AWOS

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 PM AKST SAT DEC 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ADAK STATION            51.84N 176.64W
12/12/2015  M120 MPH                            AK   C-MAN STATION

&&

JAHSENMA