Storm Warning 167, NWS Anchorage, AK

366 
FZAK62 PAFC 141218
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150200-
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 953 MB LOW NEAR 60N 171W WILL TRACK TO 63N 171W AT 973 MB
TONIGHT...THEN TO 66N 170W AT 994 MB TUE NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 48N 175W THIS MORNING AND MOVE INLAND FROM BRISTOL
BAY NEAR 58N 159W AT 994 MB EARLY TUE MORNING. A 996 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 55N 175E TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 58N 173W AT 1000 MB TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT.

$$

PKZ412-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ413-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ414-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 TO 35 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

818 
FZAK62 PAFC 150000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151430-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 MB LOW NEAR 62N 171W WILL TRACK TO 64N 172W AT 981 MB
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN EXITS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA WED MORNING. A
1000 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170W MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY NEAR 59N
160W AT 994 MB TUE MORNING. A 996 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N
178W TUE MORNING AND MOVE TO 57N 171W AT 1003 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-151430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 36 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-151430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ413-151430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ414-151430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW TO SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 29 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
603 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD THIS MORNING...WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND A
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION OVER THE BERING
SEA. BUOYS HAVE ANALYZED THIS STORM INTO THE HIGH 920 HPA
RANGE...MAKING THIS POWERFUL STORM ONE OF THE STRONGEST ON RECORD
IN THE BERING SEA. MOREOVER...ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES HAVE REMOTELY
MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER OPEN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 80
KNOTS...VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEAS HAVE BEEN
MEASURED BY BUOYS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IN EXCESS OF 50
FEET. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS OF BOTH POLAR ORBITING
AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF
A "SCORPIONS TAIL" (AKA STING JET) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THIS IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE FEATURE...A REGION OF VERY
INTENSE LOCALIZED DOWNWARD AND OUTWARD MOVING WINDS...HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH ON ADAK
ISLAND...MEASURED BY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
IMPACTING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SHEMYA...AND MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BERING EXCEPT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING. ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...THE
WEATHER IS MUCH MILDER AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...LEAVING WEAK OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AND
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD COOK INLET INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE
IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE BERING CYCLONE...WHICH IS
PROGGED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY. THIS DISCREPANCY HAS
AN IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WOULD BE SNOW THREATS ALL ALONG THE COAST INTO PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR NOW...WITH THE GFS BEING A LARGE
OUTLIER...AND WITH THE SENSITIVITY OF THE PATTERN TO SMALL MODEL
ERRORS...THIS FEATURE WILL BE HANDLED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE BERING SEA STORM WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AFFECTING KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. BY TONIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MON AND MON NIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE. IT WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT SWINGS NORTH. SNOW
AND WIND INTENSITY PEAK TODAY AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WINTER PRODUCTS REMAIN FOR THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW CHANGES OVER TO SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE WINTRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH THE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERLY LIMITING THE WARMING INLAND. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING TO
THE COAST LATE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE BERING LOW LIFTS NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES MOVES IN FROM THE
BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING. WINDS TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS THE LOW
FILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AS THE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL BERING. COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES RETURNS ACROSS THE
BERING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY THE
SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVE IN. THE
MORE EASTERLY SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING LIES WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS FASTER AND PUSHES THE
LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE EC AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MOVE THE
LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
WESTERN GULF TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER WINDS FOR THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EC AND GEM BEING FASTER THAN THE SLOWER GFS. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TAKES
A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191 195
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
         STORM WARNING 185 180 178 171 165 155
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 185
         GALE WARNING 181 160 150

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DK