Small Craft Advisory 993, NWS Anchorage, AK

431 
FZAK51 PAFC 140823 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-142115-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF
AND NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. A 998 MB LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM BRISTOL BAY AND TRACK TO 130 NM NORTHWEST OF HOMER TUE MORNING.


$$

PKZ119-142115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING
TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-142115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-142115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NORTH WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-142115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-142115-
PORT VALDEZ-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-142115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-142115-
VALDEZ ARM-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-142115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-142115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...FROM AUGUSTINE ISLAND W...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF AUGUSTINE ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...FROM AUGUSTINE ISLAND W...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF AUGUSTINE ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-142115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-142115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-142115-
CHINIAK BAY-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-142115-
MARMOT BAY-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-142115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SOUTHERN ENTRANCE...SW
WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-142115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-142115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT...WIND DIMINISHING TO
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-142115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1123 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

679 
FZAK51 PAFC 141253
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150145-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. A 994 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL
BAY TONIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM EARLY TUE MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-150145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 25KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE...BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150145-
PORT VALDEZ-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150145-
VALDEZ ARM-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150145-
CHINIAK BAY-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150145-
MARMOT BAY-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
353 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
603 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD THIS MORNING...WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND A
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FORCE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION OVER THE BERING
SEA. BUOYS HAVE ANALYZED THIS STORM INTO THE HIGH 920 HPA
RANGE...MAKING THIS POWERFUL STORM ONE OF THE STRONGEST ON RECORD
IN THE BERING SEA. MOREOVER...ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES HAVE REMOTELY
MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER OPEN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 80
KNOTS...VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEAS HAVE BEEN
MEASURED BY BUOYS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IN EXCESS OF 50
FEET. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS OF BOTH POLAR ORBITING
AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF
A "SCORPIONS TAIL" (AKA STING JET) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THIS IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE FEATURE...A REGION OF VERY
INTENSE LOCALIZED DOWNWARD AND OUTWARD MOVING WINDS...HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH ON ADAK
ISLAND...MEASURED BY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
IMPACTING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SHEMYA...AND MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BERING EXCEPT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING. ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...THE
WEATHER IS MUCH MILDER AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...LEAVING WEAK OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW AND
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD COOK INLET INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE
IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE BERING CYCLONE...WHICH IS
PROGGED BY THE NAM AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY. THIS DISCREPANCY HAS
AN IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WOULD BE SNOW THREATS ALL ALONG THE COAST INTO PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. FOR NOW...WITH THE GFS BEING A LARGE
OUTLIER...AND WITH THE SENSITIVITY OF THE PATTERN TO SMALL MODEL
ERRORS...THIS FEATURE WILL BE HANDLED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE BERING SEA STORM WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AFFECTING KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. BY TONIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MON AND MON NIGHT...SNOW WILL CONTINUE. IT WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT SWINGS NORTH. SNOW
AND WIND INTENSITY PEAK TODAY AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING. WINTER PRODUCTS REMAIN FOR THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW CHANGES OVER TO SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE WINTRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH THE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERLY LIMITING THE WARMING INLAND. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT WAVE MOVING TO
THE COAST LATE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE BERING LOW LIFTS NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVES MOVES IN FROM THE
BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING TRACKS NORTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING. WINDS TAPER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS THE LOW
FILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AS THE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL BERING. COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES RETURNS ACROSS THE
BERING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY THE
SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVE IN. THE
MORE EASTERLY SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DISCREPANCY IN TIMING LIES WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS FASTER AND PUSHES THE
LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE EC AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MOVE THE
LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
WESTERN GULF TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER WINDS FOR THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON
THURSDAY WITH THE EC AND GEM BEING FASTER THAN THE SLOWER GFS. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TAKES
A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191 195
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179
         STORM WARNING 185 180 178 171 165 155
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 185
         GALE WARNING 181 160 150

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DK