Storm Warning 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

028 
FZAK52 PAFC 011251
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020145-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 600 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY TO 957 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 
250NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA AS IT WEAKENS TO 968 MB WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020145-
BRISTOL BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 8 FT FROM PORT
MOLLER E. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020145-
UNALASKA BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
351 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH A FEW SMALL BUT NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. THE SHARP BLOCKING
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. THIS IS ALLOWING THE JET STREAK OVER THE
PANHANDLE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA AND A GALE FORCE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. TO THE
WEST OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW A WEAK WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR AOR TODAY AS IT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH SMALL SCALE
FEATURES IN THE EARLY TERM. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND MOVE THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A NEW FEATURE THAT IS ONLY BEING RESOLVED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THIS WAVE TO INCREASE THE GALE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AROUND THE
BARRENS AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGER
DIFFERENCES THEN ARISE LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
STRONGER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF...ESPECIALLY WITH
INTENSITY. THE GFS/GEM ARE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS AND BRING
CONTINUOUS GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE NAM/EC ARE MUCH WEAKER AND ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE SAME AREAS. THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR NOW WITH THIS LOW TO KEEP CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST SMALL...BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY FOR CHANGES IN MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TO THE NORTH
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND PUSH
WESTWARD TO NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
PUSH SOME MOISTURE INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...STALLING
OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE MITIGATED BY CROSS BARRIER
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT. SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR THE GREATER
BRISTOL BAY AREA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND WILL
STAY PRETTY QUIET...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SWING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND DUTCH HARBOR TODAY INCREASING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE AREA. AS THE FRONT STALLS BETWEEN THESE AREAS...AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FORM A DEFORMATION ZONE
INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FEATURES RAIN
TO THE EAST TOWARD UNIMAK PASS AND SNOW TO THE WEST TOWARD THE
PRIBILOFS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...WITH ANOTHER GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE BERING LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WITH THE MAIN PACIFIC JET
AND STORM TRACK SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SOUTHERN ALASKA
WILL BE UNDER A RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH COASTAL SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS INLAND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT SOME INLAND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...BEFORE DRYING OUT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTH SLOPE...WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CONTINUE MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE PACIFIC JET WILL REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE...WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING AROUND 40-45N. THIS WILL
KEEP INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALASKA FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER AS THE MAIN BELT OF COLD AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 138 139 170 171 172
					  173 174 175 176 179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...JA