Gale Warning 863, NWS Anchorage, AK

677 
FZAK51 PAFC 011449 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020415-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG 
THE COAST NEAR SEWARD AND DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. A 977 MB LOW
190 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WED MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-020415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020415-
PORT VALDEZ-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020415-
VALDEZ ARM-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. GUST TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020415-
CHINIAK BAY-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020415-
MARMOT BAY-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
549 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

966 
FZAK51 PAFC 020000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021230-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 979 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA MOVES INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND DISSIPATES BY TUE NIGHT. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY WED...STALLS...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-021230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021230-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021230-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021230-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021230-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
438 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS FORMING OVER
NORTHERN JAPAN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE MODELS NOT RECOGNIZING THE LOW THAT
FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF HINTS
AT THIS LOW WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE GFS DOES
APPEAR TO RECOGNIZE AND FORM A SECOND LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IS BRINGING THIS LOW NORTH TOWARD
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW NEAR
SAND POINT AND THE NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW MOVING FROM SAND POINT TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
HAVING IT ABOUT 480 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AROUND 975 MB BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ENDS UP
IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION WED JUST WEST SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA.
HOWEVER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF
COMING IN AROUND 960 MB WHILE THE NAM IS AT 975 AND THE GFS IS IN
THE MIDDLE AROUND 970 MB BY WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT IS RESOLVED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT WE
ARE USING THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING WILL
STALL OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE INLAND FROM EAST
TO WEST TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL START TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY WHICH SHIFTS EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.
THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FILTER IN WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
WITH LOW PRESSURE HOLDING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 50 TO 65 MPH
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY EVENING WITH MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A DEEP WARM SECLUSION CYCLONE OVER
THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
EXIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. INLAND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF DIMINISHING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING THE
COAST.

WITH TIME...THE DEEP BERING CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST AND TAP THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WITH A DEEP LOW FORMING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AS STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP
INLAND LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY.

THEREAFTER...THE NORTH PACIFIC JET BECOMES HIGHLY ACTIVE AND
VOLATILE...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST TO THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA...KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LOWS EJECTING OUT OF THE STRONG JET
STREAM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN TENDS TO
FAVOR A GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SIGNATURE WITH PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO
FAR AWAY FROM NORMAL EVEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW.

BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK THERE ARE HINTS THAT A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA...ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY MIDWEEK...AND
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED SNOW CHANCES AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOR
THE TIME BEING STORMINESS WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND LARGELY
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
ARISES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 171 172 173.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 139 155 165
                        175 176 177 178 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA