Gale Warning 827, NWS Anchorage, AK

070 
FZAK62 PAFC 020000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021430-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE BY
WED MORNING. A 981 MB LOW NEAR 47N 169E EARLY TUE EVENING MOVES TO
52N 174E AT 962 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 47N 175W AT 980
MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

726 
FZAK62 PAFC 021148
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030215-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW AT 52N 171E MOVES TO 44N 164W AS A 984 MB LOW FRI
MORNING THEN DISSIPATES. A 981 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 54N 173W THU
MORNING AND MOVES TO 49N 154W AS A 975 MB LOW FRI MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL
ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT...STRONGEST S OF 56N. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...STRONGEST S OF 56N. SEAS 10 TO
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

578 
FZAK62 PAFC 030045
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031400-
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 MB LOW 52N 171W MOVES TO 49N 176W AS A 969 MB LOW THUR
MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES 47N 179W AS A 974 MB BY THUR EVENING
AND DISSIPATES A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AS
A 979 MB LOW BY FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES FROM THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

115 
FZAK62 PAFC 031205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040245-
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW AT 50N 177E MOVES TO 45N 164W BY FRI MORNING AS A 978
MB LOW DISSIPATES FRI AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES FRI NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW NEAR 47N 165E
FRI AFTERNOON MOVES TO 47N 171E AS A 976 MB LOW SAT MORNING. A
981 MB LOW FORMS AT 45N 178E FRI NIGHT MOVES TO 48N 175W AS A 973
MB LOW SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-040245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 56N.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-040245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
175W.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-040245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 15 TO 30 KT. S OF
55N...VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-040245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 040033
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041445-
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BERING LATE THU NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 56N 168W DEVELOPS ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 58N 169W AT 990 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-041445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-041445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 58N.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-041445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-041445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
438 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS FORMING OVER
NORTHERN JAPAN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE MODELS NOT RECOGNIZING THE LOW THAT
FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF HINTS
AT THIS LOW WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE GFS DOES
APPEAR TO RECOGNIZE AND FORM A SECOND LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IS BRINGING THIS LOW NORTH TOWARD
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW NEAR
SAND POINT AND THE NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW MOVING FROM SAND POINT TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
HAVING IT ABOUT 480 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AROUND 975 MB BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ENDS UP
IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION WED JUST WEST SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA.
HOWEVER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF
COMING IN AROUND 960 MB WHILE THE NAM IS AT 975 AND THE GFS IS IN
THE MIDDLE AROUND 970 MB BY WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT IS RESOLVED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT WE
ARE USING THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING WILL
STALL OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE INLAND FROM EAST
TO WEST TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL START TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY WHICH SHIFTS EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.
THIS FLOW CHANGE WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FILTER IN WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
WITH LOW PRESSURE HOLDING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 50 TO 65 MPH
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY EVENING WITH MAX GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A DEEP WARM SECLUSION CYCLONE OVER
THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
EXIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. INLAND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF DIMINISHING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING THE
COAST.

WITH TIME...THE DEEP BERING CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST AND TAP THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WITH A DEEP LOW FORMING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AS STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP
INLAND LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY.

THEREAFTER...THE NORTH PACIFIC JET BECOMES HIGHLY ACTIVE AND
VOLATILE...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF ENERGY IMPACTING THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST TO THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA...KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LOWS EJECTING OUT OF THE STRONG JET
STREAM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN TENDS TO
FAVOR A GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SIGNATURE WITH PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO
FAR AWAY FROM NORMAL EVEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW.

BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK THERE ARE HINTS THAT A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA...ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY MIDWEEK...AND
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED SNOW CHANCES AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOR
THE TIME BEING STORMINESS WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND LARGELY
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
ARISES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 171 172 173.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 139 155 165
                        175 176 177 178 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA