Small Craft Advisory 954, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY SIMILAR AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH A FEW SMALL BUT NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. THE SHARP BLOCKING
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. THIS IS ALLOWING THE JET STREAK OVER THE
PANHANDLE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA AND A GALE FORCE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. TO THE
WEST OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW A WEAK WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR AOR TODAY AS IT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH SMALL SCALE
FEATURES IN THE EARLY TERM. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE THAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND MOVE THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A NEW FEATURE THAT IS ONLY BEING RESOLVED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THIS WAVE TO INCREASE THE GALE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AROUND THE
BARRENS AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGER
DIFFERENCES THEN ARISE LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
STRONGER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF...ESPECIALLY WITH
INTENSITY. THE GFS/GEM ARE THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS AND BRING
CONTINUOUS GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE NAM/EC ARE MUCH WEAKER AND ONLY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE SAME AREAS. THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR NOW WITH THIS LOW TO KEEP CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST SMALL...BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY FOR CHANGES IN MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TO THE NORTH
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND PUSH
WESTWARD TO NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
PUSH SOME MOISTURE INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...STALLING
OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE MITIGATED BY CROSS BARRIER
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT. SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR THE GREATER
BRISTOL BAY AREA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND WILL
STAY PRETTY QUIET...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SWING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND DUTCH HARBOR TODAY INCREASING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE AREA. AS THE FRONT STALLS BETWEEN THESE AREAS...AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FORM A DEFORMATION ZONE
INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FEATURES RAIN
TO THE EAST TOWARD UNIMAK PASS AND SNOW TO THE WEST TOWARD THE
PRIBILOFS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...WITH ANOTHER GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE BERING LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WITH THE MAIN PACIFIC JET
AND STORM TRACK SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...SOUTHERN ALASKA
WILL BE UNDER A RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH COASTAL SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS INLAND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT SOME INLAND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...BEFORE DRYING OUT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTH SLOPE...WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CONTINUE MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE PACIFIC JET WILL REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE...WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING AROUND 40-45N. THIS WILL
KEEP INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALASKA FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER AS THE MAIN BELT OF COLD AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 138 139 170 171 172
					  173 174 175 176 179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...JA