Storm Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 10, 2015, 3:04 AM AKST (12:04 UTC)

Expired

Nov 10, 2015, 3:45 PM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

061 
FZAK52 PAFC 101204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110045-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 80 NM NORTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 958 MB TONIGHT THEN TO 80 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK AT 961
MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-110045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SW 30 KT FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND N.
SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-110045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT EXCEPT SW 60 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 43 FT EXCEPT 35 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-110045-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-110045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
25 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-110045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FROM UNALASKA E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT BECOMING NW 75 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
34 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-110045-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 55 KT INCREASING TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 85 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-110045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT BECOMING W 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27
FT BUILDING TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 38 FT
SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-110045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 70 KT. SEAS
34 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-110045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 32 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-110045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING W 60 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-110045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 60 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-110045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-110045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SHEMYA...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 50 KT LATE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-110045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 55 KT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ180-110045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-110045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-110045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
AND W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 9, 4:49 PM AKST, 10 hours 15 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A
POWERFUL VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE
WELL ADVERTISED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MADE ITS WAY
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LAST NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS VARIED QUITE WIDELY
FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. PLEASE SEE THE
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) FOR PRELIMINARY TOTALS. WITH
SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT CREEPING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...THE
UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS MAKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THESE ARE ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD UP IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY WHERE SOME WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE COOK INLET IS
BEING LIFTED ALONG THE TERRAIN. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THIS COLD
UNSTABLE FLOW ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE BERING CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ALL THE WAY INLAND TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE BEST LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE "PARTING SHOT" OF ENERGY IN
THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING BRISTOL BAY. THIS
SYSTEM PRODUCED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA UP
TO BETHEL WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THIS WAVE
IS RIGHT IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A ROBUST 160 KT JET. THE REMAINDER OF THE JET
FLOWS RIGHT ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GULF AT ABOUT 110 KTS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. BUT AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...THE DETAILS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE BROAD WESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SET UP BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE. PLANNING TO GO WITH A BROAD
BRUSHED APPROACH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO HANDLE THIS
UNCERTAINTY. THE MORE IMPORTANT CONCERN WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IS
HOW THEY HANDLE THE POWERFUL CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE INTO WED. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNIQUE IN THAT
IT DEVELOPS FROM THE SURFACE BAROCLINITY UPWARD. IT WILL BE RIGHT
ALONG A 150 KT ZONAL JET. THESE TWO ASPECTS ARE CAUSING MODELS TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MINIMUM PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS AS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BECOME NEAR DUTCH
LATE TUE INTO WED AND WILL THE PRIBILOFS STAY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE
BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS ON THE
AMERICAN MODELS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT TO THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH NUMEROUS
WEAK WAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS WILL KEEP A
SHOWERY REGIME IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR COOK
INLET. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A WEAK AND ELONGATING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TOMORROW
MORNING...SPREADING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TO SUPPORT
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION ENDING AS IT MOVES EAST...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. A
STRONG STORM FORCE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND...AND RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
A VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHADOW WITH ONLY PASSING FLURRIES AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN AND WIND
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE AKPEN. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT BIG PLAYER WILL BE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF SHEMYA THAT WILL REACH BRISTOL BAY AND THE
AKPEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ON THE
TRAILING SIDE...WHICH WILL BRING STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE LOW...CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE. SOME BLOWING
SNOW WILL AFFECT THE PRIBILOFS AS THE LOW HEADS FOR BRISTOL BAY
AND THE AKPEN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE NAM/GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PLACEMENT
ON STORM PATH TRAJECTORY WITH THE HURRICANE FORCE LOW POSITIONED IN
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL IS DEPICTING THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER EASTWARD AND HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IN PREDOMINANTLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE BERING SEA. RESULTING IN A
SHOWERY REGIME WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE STORM FORCE LOW FROM THE BERING SEA TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE KODIAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC
FEATURE PUSHES THROUGH THE BARREN ISLAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS...SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE GOING INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STRATUS THROUGH THE GULF AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR
YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY GAP WINDS BY THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL HAVE ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO OFFSHORE FLOW BY END OF THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES COINCIDING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 185 187.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE...170 172 173. STORMS...155 171 174 175
176 177 179 413 414. GALES 131 132 150 160 165 178 180 181 185 351
352 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...PD

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.