Storm Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

061 
FZAK52 PAFC 101204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110045-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 80 NM NORTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 958 MB TONIGHT THEN TO 80 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK AT 961
MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-110045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SW 30 KT FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND N.
SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-110045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT EXCEPT SW 60 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 43 FT EXCEPT 35 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-110045-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-110045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
25 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-110045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FROM UNALASKA E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT BECOMING NW 75 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
34 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-110045-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 55 KT INCREASING TO 85 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 85 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-110045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT BECOMING W 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27
FT BUILDING TO 40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 38 FT
SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-110045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 70 KT. SEAS
34 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-110045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 32 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-110045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING W 60 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-110045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 60 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-110045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-110045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SHEMYA...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 50 KT LATE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-110045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 55 KT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ180-110045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-110045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-110045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
AND W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
459 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ALOFT THIS MORNING. ITS CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ARCTIC WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE JET STREAM IS
RUNNING FROM EAST ASIA AROUND THE TROUGH...PUNCHING UP INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA AROUND 130 KTS WITH A STRONGER 160 KT CORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A DIFFLUENT UPPER TROUGH IS QUICKLY
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING
OUT OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE STRONG TURNAGAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS QUICKLY ENDED AND HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHERLY UP-INLET
FLOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. BACK BEHIND THE FRONT AN UNSTABLE
WESTERLY FLOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE BERING SEA WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

AS THE CURRENT LARGE BERING STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
FILL...MODELS HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION REALLY WELL. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA. LATE TONIGHT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/JET STEAK WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
SOLUTION FOR DAYS...DEVELOPING A RATHER PROGRESSIVE BOMB-CYCLONE
OVER THE BERING SEA. THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT
PRESSURE/TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A COMPACT AND DEEP SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ALASKA THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LAST
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING AND WILL
EXIT INTO NORTHWEST CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. WEAK IMPULSES
WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES...BUT POPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORIES FOR THESE EVENTS. THE
STRONGEST IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE PRIBILOFS AND WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT
VERY ORGANIZED AND FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST...SO
AGAIN POPS NOT VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THE BULK OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH A TOUCH
ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM. THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A RIPE POCKET
OF -40 DEGREES 500 MB TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER MUCH WARMER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE COMMON ACROSS THE BERING SEA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE STACKED LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA ALLOWS FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL USHER IN
COLDER AIR FROM SIBERIA AND CREATE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SPEAKING OF
INSTABILITY...QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL AS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WEAK
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE AN IMPACTFUL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PUSHES SOUTH OF SHEMYA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY POTENT JET STREAK AND HAPPENS TO BE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION (FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS) WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. A SLUG OF WARM AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY
STRONG WINDS. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PUTS ADAK...ATKA AND DUTCH
HARBOR IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SEE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR DAYS AND HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ADAK AND ATKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 80 MPH WHILE DUTCH
HARBOR/UNALASKA COULD SEE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE POWERFUL LOW IMPACTING THE BERING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECEDING THE
LOW...AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
AS WELL AS SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND BARREN ISLANDS WATERS AND
BRINGS SOLID GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW...EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WHERE A LONG FETCH OF WINDS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND CHUGACH AND BRING AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
GULF WATERS. THE COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MAINLAND SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY.

OUT WEST...AFTER THE HURRICANE-FORCE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK COLD ADVECTION AND BROAD NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO SPILL SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA CLOUDY AND ON
THE WET SIDE...WHILE SOUTH AND EAST-FACING SIDES WILL LARGELY
REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH ONLY INTERMITTENT CLOUDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...185 187.
 		 HIGH SURF ADVISORY...155.
MARINE...GALES...131 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 175 178-181
				 185.
         STORMS....174 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1208 PM AKST MON NOV 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             3 SW HOUSTON            61.59N 149.85W
11/09/2015  M5.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0600 AM     SNOW             STERLING                60.52N 150.80W
11/09/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0600 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
11/09/2015  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOW DEPTH 3

&&

KUTZ