Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2015

Small Craft Advisory 1015, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 21, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 21, 2015, 3:13 PM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 21, 2015, 3:13 PM AKST (00:13 UTC)
Expired: Dec 22, 2015, 3:16 PM AKST
In force: 24 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

075 
FZAK51 PAFC 220013
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221315-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 990 MB AND 
MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT AND MOVES INLAND NEAR ELFIN 
COVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-221315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT....EXCEPT 5 FT 
NEAR THE COAST.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 15 KT NEAR THE COAST.
SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221315-
PORT VALDEZ-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221315-
VALDEZ ARM-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT 
BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW 
WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221315-
CHINIAK BAY-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221315-
MARMOT BAY-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF 
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS IN ICE  FREE WATERS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT OR LESS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
313 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

2 follow-up statements

972 
FZAK51 PAFC 221216
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230100-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK EXITS INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA
DRIFTS EAST AND DISSIPATES BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY THU.

$$

PKZ119-230100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230100-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230100-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230100-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230100-
MARMOT BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

703 
FZAK51 PAFC 230016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231315-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD 992 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT DISSIPATES WED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-231315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231315-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231315-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231315-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231315-
MARMOT BAY-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT S OF ANCHOR POINT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NW 25 KT S OF ANCHOR POINT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 KT S OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NW 10 KT OVER THE OUTER BAY.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 21, 4:40 AM AKST, 10 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 4:40 AM AKST, 10 hours 33 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A DECAYING UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS
MORNING...WITH A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA
AND MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. A SMALL RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE AKPEN AND SE AK. A NEARLY ZONAL MID LATITUDE TRANSPACIFIC JET
PERSISTS FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW IS OFF THE SOUTHEAST AK COAST...PART OF A
LARGER TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. AN ELONGATED LOW
STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BERING TO UNIMAK PASS. A FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AKPEN. STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING FRONT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A
PREVIOUS LOW CONTINUE TO SPREAD LOW CLOUDS...FOG..AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER SW AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRANSPACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN TO
BUCKLE OUT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED BY A BETTER HANDLING OF THE ELONGATED BERING LOW...WHICH
BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO SEPARATE CENTERS...ONE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND THE OTHER JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE LATTER WILL RACE TO HAIDA GWAI AND BEYOND TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THE JET BUCKLE WILL CAUSE THE WESTERN CENTER TO SPIN UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW AIMED AT AMCHITKA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS HAVE BECOME VERY
SIMILAR...THE FORECAST UTILIZED THE GFS FOR BETTER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT IS JUST NORTH OF KODIAK WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
RESIDUAL "TROUGHINESS" WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...BUT IN
GENERAL THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE
OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DECAYING LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING WINDS
HAVE PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN TODAY IS
WINTER SOLSTICE AND A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION IS IN
PLACE (12.21.00Z/12Z PABE SOUNDING) IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABLE
TO MIX OUT VERY FAST OR AT ALL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
VISIBILITY IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BUT LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND
AND THICKENS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CAVEATS TO SAID FORECAST...HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OFF THE STALLING BERING SEA FRONT...WHILE
LIMITING DAYTIME MIXING....COULD PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND INHIBIT STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. ALSO...THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE AIR FROM THE
INTERIOR. THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OFF THE SURFACE WILL
SETTLE IN...HOWEVER LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. ALL THESE THINGS TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION...CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG AND VERY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING TEMPERATURES DAILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHILE A CONVECTIVE SHOWERY
REGIME SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BERING IN WESTERLY COLD
ADVECTION. THAT AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS REGIME WILL STICK AROUND FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CYCLONE COMES IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE IDEA OF A STRONG LOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS OUT NEAR KISKA ISLAND AROUND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE BOTH
THE TIMING AND THE DISTANCE NORTH THE LOW MAKES IT UP INTO THE
BERING. THE COMPLEXITIES APPEAR TO BE ARISING FROM AN INTERESTING
BUCKLING IN THE JET STREAM AROUND A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER AND RATHER STRONG WESTERLY JET STREAM TO
THE SOUTH. A STRONG JET STREAK ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BECOMES ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 40 AND 50N ALONG 180 EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS THIS JET STREAK THAT PROPELS THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW UP NORTH INTO THE BERING. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUCKLES AND
AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO BE UNDERCUT THE LARGER JET COMING IN FROM THE
WEST BETWEEN 35 AND 40N AND THE ENTIRE FEATURE IS SWEPT OFF TO
THE EAST. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS THAN THE
SURFACE FEATURES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MAKE IT
NORTH TO AROUND 54N WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AS IT FILLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST COLD AIR BUILDS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO PUSH MORE COLD
INTERIOR AIR INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE GAP
WINDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REACH THE WESTERN
TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM BRISTOL BAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. AS WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY OF REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT IT WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND THE FRONT SHEARING APART AS IT GETS MORE DISTANT FROM THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT VERY FAR INLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181 185
         STORM 155
         GALES 132 150 165 170 172 173 178 179 191 180 181 185 352
         412 413 414

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 21, 3:13 PM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	12 hr
Dec 21, 3:37 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	48 hr
Dec 21, 3:37 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	24 hr
Dec 21, 3:37 PM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	60 hr
Dec 22, 3:16 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	48 hr
Dec 22, 3:16 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	48 hr
Dec 22, 3:16 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	48 hr
Dec 22, 3:16 AM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	12 hr
Dec 22, 3:33 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	12 hr
Dec 22, 3:33 AM AKST	Storm Warning	AFC	3 days
Dec 22, 3:34 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	60 hr
Dec 22, 3:34 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	12 hr
Dec 22, 3:34 AM AKST	Storm Warning	AFC	3 days
Dec 22, 4:48 AM AKST	High Wind Watch	AFC	11 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2015 Every small craft advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.