Gale Warning 849, NWS Anchorage, AK

601 
FZAK61 PAFC 230001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231400-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A BROAD 992 MB LOW NEAR 59N 141W DISSIPATES WED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

454 
FZAK61 PAFC 231213
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240245-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 141W WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AND DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT AND PRESSES OVER KODIAK
CITY AND THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-240245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-240245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.

$$

850 
FZAK61 PAFC 240043
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241430-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 58N 138W WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AND DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-241430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-241430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

298 
FZAK61 PAFC 241223
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250245-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 56N 135W ANCHORS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COASTS. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND DRIVES TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTS BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-250245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-250245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT BUILDING TO 19 TO 23
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
FOG HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHCENTRAL IN AND AROUND
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FORMED THIS
MORNING IN THE SATURATED LAYER THAT DEVELOPED UNDER A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION. VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO INHIBITED MIXING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHED THE ANCHORAGE AREA MID-MORNING...CAUSING THE FOG TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIDESPREAD
FOG INITIATED BY THE SAME PHENOMENA DESCRIBED ABOVE PERSISTS
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS FROM BETHEL EAST TO KOLIGANEK AND
SPARREVOHN. BETHELS 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO ANCHORAGE...SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED SURFACE INVERSION AND
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WINDS NEAR THE GROUND. THE LARGER-SCALE
WEATHER MAPS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER
WITH A COL OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA...BOTH FEATURES
WHICH RESULT IN LITTLE WIND. THE LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND AS MINIMAL A SOLAR INFLUENCE
AS IT GETS ALL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PERSISTENT LOCALLY DENSE FOG
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

OVER THE BERING...A STATIONARY FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE IS IN PLACE
STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN BERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING.
THE RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG SIBERIAN
POLAR HIGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THUS...STRONG OPPOSING WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZONE ARE
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR
IS UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER
LEVEL AIR. THE RESULT IS STRONG INSTABILITY AND "POPCORN" LOOKING
CUMULUS AND OCCASIONAL CUMULONIMBUS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC...INCLUDING ALL OF THE ALEUTIANS.
DETECTED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...BUT
ARE INDICATIVE OF THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE MAJOR FEATURES IMPACTING THE AOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
PRIMARY PACIFIC JET STREAK REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS HEADING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY NIGHT HELPS AMPLIFY
A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE JET STREAK THAT FORMS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BIGGER DIFFERENCES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES
IN STORM INTENSITY AND HOW FAVORABLE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WITH
SUPPORTING A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE NAM WAS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE CONCERNING ALL OF THE ABOVE DIFFERENCES. THE NAMS HIGHER
RESOLUTION AND THE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION WERE THE PRIMARY
FEATURES FAVORING IT OVER THE OTHER MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS HIGH CONSIDERING LOW MODEL SPREAD AND THE GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LOOKING FOR ISOLATED PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MAT-SU VALLEYS AND THE UPPER
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT. WHILE UPSTREAM THE UPPER LEVELS
HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AOR AND AID IN MIXING OUT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE
REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN GUSTY GAP WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH WHITTIER...PORTAGE
AND OTHER FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
LOW MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES A WEAK FRONT TO THE WEST COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES AN EASTWARD TRACK TO THE ALASKA
RANGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
OF BRISTOL BAY...ELSEWHERE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN INCREASES OUT OF
THE NORTH TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE NEXT STRONG FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
NEAR KISKA INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
A DIRECTIONAL WIND CHANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN BERING BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE MIDWEEK BERING STORM...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT STARTS EAST ON THURSDAY. WITH THE VERY
STRONG JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AM STILL FAVORING THE MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS WHICH WHICH WOULD BRING THE LOW ROUGHLY 100 TO 150 NM
INTO THE BERING BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROADER WESTERLY
FLOW AND SWINGS EAST.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT POINT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE FATE OF THE
NEXT ITERATION OF THIS LOW IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.
THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WHICH CONTINUES TO SEEM
WELL TOO FAR NORTH. IN THE EC...A NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS UP INTO ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW WHICH LIFTS NORTH TO THE WESTERN TIP OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HANGS ON TO THE BERING LOW AS THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE BUT TAKES IT MORE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TREK EAST.
ADDITIONALLY IT LIFTS THE FEATURE UP OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
FASTER AND AS MORE OF A TRIPLE POINT RATHER THAN CLOSED LOW. RIGHT
NOW I AM TENDING TO FAVOR THE EC SOLUTION AS THE MORE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE LOW (RELATIVE TO THE GFS TRACK) IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATION AND STRENGTH. ALSO WITH ALL THE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY AM FAVORING THE IDEA OF THE WAVE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

IMPACT WISE...THE SOLUTION WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW SWINGING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THAT AREA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUSTAINING THE NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW GAP WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER HOWEVER WILL LIMIT THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS. A CONTINUED ACTIVE STORM TRACK
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG LOWS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO
THE BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FURTHER EAST THEY
WILL TEND TO DROP SOUTH CROSSING THE GULF CLOSER TO 50N ONLY
MINIMALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 165 176 177 178 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 129 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR