Alert archive / Alaska / Hurricane Force Wind Warnings in 2015
Hurricane Force Wind Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this hurricane force wind warning at Nov 21, 2015, 2:57 PM AKST. It was in force for 13 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 21, 2015, 2:57 PM AKST (23:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 22, 2015, 3:45 AM AKST
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
448 FZAK52 PAFC 212357 CWFALU COASTAL WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT. WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ199-221245- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 1012 MB LOW 110 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SAT NIGHT. A 987 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB AS IT MOVES TO 85 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AT 970 MB. $$ PKZ150-221245- SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ155-221245- SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. .SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 10 FT. .MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. $$ PKZ160-221245- BRISTOL BAY- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. .MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ165-221245- PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. .SUN...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ170-221245- CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ171-221245- UNALASKA BAY- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. .THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. $$ PKZ172-221245- CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. $$ PKZ173-221245- NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ174-221245- NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT. $$ PKZ175-221245- SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING S 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$ PKZ176-221245- SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING S 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 27 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT. $$ PKZ177-221245- ADAK TO KISKA- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 50 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 55 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 33 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. .MON...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 27 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 30 FT. $$ PKZ178-221245- KISKA TO ATTU- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW WIND 65 KT LATE AFTERNOON. BERING SIDE...SEAS 25 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 28 FT BUILDING TO 38 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...BERING SIDE...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PAC SIDE...SW WIND 65 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO W 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PAC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. .MON...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. $$ PKZ179-221245- PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. .SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. .TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ180-221245- KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARD MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY TOWARD NUNIVAK ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY WEST. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE EVENING. .MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ181-221245- NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THE COAST. .MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ185-221245- SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS- 257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this hurricane force wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this hurricane force wind warning went out at Nov 21, 5:39 AM AKST, 9 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 5:39 AM AKST, 9 hours 18 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
539 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE
MAIN EMBEDDED LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED
BY A STRONG VORTICITY MAX THAT IS PUSHING THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM
THE NORTH HAVING ALREADY DROPPED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
OVER THE BERING...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL BUT ARE STRUGGLING
WITH TWO OF THE LOWS. THE FIRST IS THE WEAK LOW OVER THE BERING
THAT IS TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON ITS WAY INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS
LAND BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE GULF. THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THESE
DIFFERENCES IS MINOR BUT IT WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING
OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WITH A LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
EC IS MOVING THE LOW MORE SLOWLY THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE FASTER TRACK OF THE CONSENSUS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT IS NOW CENTERED IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
LOCAL GAPS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING SEWARD AND
WHITTIER...INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE
QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS...WITH THE LOW FIRST MOVING ACROSS KODIAK
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT
LOW AND ALSO TO HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT...IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH SNOW THREAT TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND TODAY IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
YIELDING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG BERING FRONT ARRIVING ON ALONG THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SET TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BERING BEFORE ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATER TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BERING SEA
ALONG THIS FRONT WITH AN SECOND SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RISE WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY...CAUSING SNOWFALL IN MOST
AREAS TO MIX OR SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS.
AT THIS POINT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. BROADLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 40N...SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
THEY ALSO AGREE IN A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND FLAT TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE DIFFICULTIES ARE
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AS THE MODELS ARE STILL PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-
FA...WITH A ROUGH LOCATION SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH A LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT JUST NORTH OF HAWAII
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS
LOW AND MOVING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN POTIONS OF KODIAK
ISLAND SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LOW AND ITS
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH IN-FA...WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN DAYS
4-7...WHICH LEANED HEAVY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 141.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 131 175 176 177 178
GALE 129 130 132 139 141 170 172 173 174 179 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK/RFIn the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 21, 9:01 AM AKST, 5 hours 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 901 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 AKZ101-111-221500- ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN... EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON 901 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HATCHER PASS AVALANCHE CENTER. THE HATCHER PASS AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING. *TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM AKST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKST SUNDAY. *AFFECTED AREA...FOR HATCHER PASS IN THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. *AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA WILL RISE TO HIGH TODAY INTO SUNDAY. *REASON...RECENT HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND WILL LIKELY CREATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY ON SLOPES STEEPER THAN ABOUT 30 DEGREES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD STAY OFF OF AND OUT OF UNDERNEATH SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES. AVALANCHES MAY RUN LONG DISTANCES. CHOOSE CONSERVATIVE TERRAIN. CONSULT WWW.HATCHERPASSAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE COVERAGE AREA OF ANY AVALANCHE CENTER. CHECK WWW.AVALANCHE.ORG FOR YOUR CLOSEST AVALANCHE CENTER. CHECK WWW.FSAVALANCHE.ORG TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW TO IDENTIFY AVALANCHE HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE MITIGATION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
Local storm report, Nov 21, 11:40 AM AKST, 3 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM SNOW EAGLE RIVER 61.32N 149.57W
11/21/2015 M5.0 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
0629 AM SNOW 1 NW GLEN ALPS 61.12N 149.71W
11/21/2015 M5.5 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
STEADY SNOWFALL, SLIGHT WINDS, VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5
MILES
0655 AM SNOW WILLOW 61.74N 150.06W
11/21/2015 M8.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
WILLOW SIDE OF HATCHER PASS AS OF 7 AM
0657 AM SNOW 2 E RABBIT CREEK 61.08N 149.77W
11/21/2015 M4.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
AS OF 7 AM
0700 AM SNOW 5 SSE ANCHORAGE 61.15N 149.81W
11/21/2015 M5.6 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
0707 AM SNOW 4 E ANCHORAGE 61.21N 149.76W
11/21/2015 M4.5 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
0729 AM SNOW N GLEN ALPS 61.10N 149.69W
11/21/2015 M7.0 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
0731 AM SNOW CHUGIAK 61.39N 149.48W
11/21/2015 M3.8 INCH AK PUBLIC
TOTAL OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION. SETTLED.
0739 AM SNOW EAGLE RIVER 61.32N 149.57W
11/21/2015 M7.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
0740 AM SNOW 3 ENE MEADOW LAKES 61.64N 149.52W
11/21/2015 M5.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON TOP OF 4 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
0740 AM SNOW 2 SE EAGLE RIVER 61.30N 149.53W
11/21/2015 M6.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
0758 AM SNOW BIG LAKE 61.52N 149.95W
11/21/2015 M6.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
0758 AM SNOW CHUGIAK 61.39N 149.48W
11/21/2015 M6.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
STILL SNOWING AS OF 745 AM
0807 AM SNOW 4 ESE ANCHORAGE 61.19N 149.76W
11/21/2015 M6.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
AS OF 8 AM
0807 AM SNOW 6 WSW TALKEETNA 62.31N 150.26W
11/21/2015 M3.0 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
0831 AM SNOW 1 E EAGLE RIVER 61.32N 149.54W
11/21/2015 M5.0 INCH AK MESONET
0835 AM SNOW PALMER 61.60N 149.11W
11/21/2015 M4.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
NEAR AIRPORT, ON TOP OF 2 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
0900 AM SNOW 2 SE EAGLE RIVER 61.30N 149.53W
11/21/2015 M7.5 INCH AK PUBLIC
0900 AM SNOW 5 SE SPENARD 61.13N 149.80W
11/21/2015 M7.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
0900 AM SNOW PALMER 61.60N 149.11W
11/21/2015 M7.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
NEAR LAZY MOUNTAIN
0900 AM SNOW 3 WNW GLEN ALPS 61.12N 149.76W
11/21/2015 E6.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
5-6 INCHES ESTIMATED OF FRESH SNOW.
0900 AM SNOW ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BAS 61.25N 149.80W
11/21/2015 M6.5 INCH AK PUBLIC
0915 AM SNOW 2 SE EAGLE RIVER 61.30N 149.52W
11/21/2015 M7.5 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1/4
MILE
0915 AM SNOW EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CE 61.23N 149.27W
11/21/2015 M8.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
AS OF 9AM
1050 AM SNOW 1 NNE POTTER MARSH 61.07N 149.77W
11/21/2015 M4.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
1050 AM SNOW 3 ENE GLENNALLEN 62.10N 145.53W
11/21/2015 E4.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
3-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW, HAS SETTLED
1050 AM SNOW EAGLE RIVER VISITORS CE 61.23N 149.27W
11/21/2015 M8.5 INCH AK PUBLIC
0915 AM SNOW 3 S RIDGEWAY 60.49N 151.08W
11/21/2015 M5.5 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
STRONG WEST WINDS THIS MORNIGN WITH A PEAK GUST TO 32
MPH, BRINGING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE
&&
LINGRAMLocal storm report, Nov 21, 11:46 AM AKST, 3 hours 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1146 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM SNOW HOUSTON 61.62N 149.78W
11/21/2015 M7.0 INCH AK PUBLIC
7 INCHES FROM LAST NIGHT ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS 5 INCHES
NEAR MILE MARKER 54.5 OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY
&&
LINGRAMLocal storm report, Nov 21, 12:25 PM AKST, 2 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 AM SNOW 1 N PALMER 61.61N 149.11W
11/21/2015 M5.5 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
STRONG WEST WINDS THIS MORNIGN WITH A PEAK GUST TO 32
MPH, BRINGING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE
&&
LINGRAMLocal storm report, Nov 21, 1:51 PM AKST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
151 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0151 PM SNOW BIG LAKE 61.52N 149.95W
11/21/2015 M6.1 INCH AK NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
LINGRAMThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 37 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:23 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 20, 3:59 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 29 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 3 days | |
| Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 7 days | |
| Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:47 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 7:03 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 8 hr | |
| Nov 21, 7:03 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 8 hr | |
| Nov 21, 7:13 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 21 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 4 days |
Nearby
Hurricane Force Wind Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every hurricane force wind warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.