Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015

Gale Warning 717, NWS Anchorage, AK

November 20, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 20, 2015, 3:15 PM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 20, 2015, 3:15 PM AKST (00:15 UTC)
Expired
Nov 21, 2015, 2:57 PM AKST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

265 
FZAK62 PAFC 210015
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211415-
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1011 MB LOW AT 57N 172E WILL MOVE TO 61N 166W SAT NIGHT AND
INLAND THEREAFTER. A 1015 MB LOW AT 44N 152E WILL INTENSIFY TO 995
MB AT 49N 165E SAT AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 55N 176E INTENSIFYING TO
973 MB SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-211415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 6 TO
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 33 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 29 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$
2 follow-up statements
002 
FZAK62 PAFC 211239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220315-
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 57N 179W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 60N 162W AT 1015
MB TONIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB NEAR 51N 169E TONIGHT...THEN FURTHER
INTENSIFY TO 966 MB NEAR 57N 179E SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-220315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N TO W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 TO 31 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$
231 
FZAK62 PAFC 212357
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221445-
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 59N 171W WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA SAT NIGHT. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 49N 162E WILL STRENGTHEN TO
967 MB NEAR 54N 173E SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO
60N 177W MON AFTERNOON AT 970 MB.

$$

PKZ411-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT BUILDING TO 16 TO 22
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 29 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 45 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 TO 36 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
257 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 20, 5:24 AM AKST, 9 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 5:24 AM AKST, 9 hours 51 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
524 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN LOW FOR THE AREA SITS NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE IT
IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS
PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND IS NOW BRINGING WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE STRONG JET SUPPORT WITH THIS FLOW IS
ALLOWING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO SEE RAIN WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND ALSO SEEING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW.
OUT WEST A SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST WITH ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION BRINGING UP MORE WARM AIR TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR FEATURES AND
THEIR IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

UNSTABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE SNOW.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MIXED AT TIMES ELSEWHERE TODAY WITH A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMER AIR IN PLACE. A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN UNDER A STRONG WESTERLY JET RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT/SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ENDS UP OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY SAT MORNING. A COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS COOK
INLET/MATSU VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO COOL
WITH LOW TRACK SO EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES TONIGHT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD
BECOME MORE SHOWERY (SNOW) SAT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP IN
FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE RISES WITH COLD ADVECTION OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT WILL KICK OFF STRONG WESTERLY
GAP FLOWS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. ALSO...GALES TO STORM FORCE WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FAST MOVING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS IT RACES
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S WILL
INITIALLY SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THUS SERVE TO LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER APPROXIMATELY 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS COLD ADVECTION
QUICKLY SETS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
USHER IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FROM THE CENTRAL BERING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW RAPIDLY PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO CHANGE
THINGS OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND KEEP
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS VERY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING IN BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. ANOTHER POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS A STORM FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING
ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO MOST AREAS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS IT WEAKENS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING AND WEAKENING
FEATURE...SO AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LITTLE RISK
OF DOWNSLOPING MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN STORY IN THE MID TO LONG TERM IS THE LARGE LOW ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR SHEMYA ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE GENERAL STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW. FOR THIS FORECAST...AT DAY 3 A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND EC WAS USED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE WPC FORECAST AT DAY 4.
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STORM FORCE AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES INTO THE 965-970 MB RANGE
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA NEAR ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA...PASSING THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS
AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
IT...WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY
TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SNOW INLAND WITH RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS.
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE FORECAST TRENDED TO MOSTLY WPC
FOR THE DAY 4-6 WITH SOME BLENDING OF THE GFS ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE BERING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WHILE AT THE SAME TIME BRINGING A LOW UP
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE REMNANTS
OF EX-TYPHOON IN-FA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE
REMAINS ON IN-FA. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 6-7
USED THE WPC FORECAST WHICH SHOWS SOME SORT OF CYCLONE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW IN THE
DAY 6-7 FORECAST DUE TO THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF
IN-FA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 130 131
         GALE 130 136 137 138 139 141 150 155 160 165 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 131 139 140 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK/RF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 20, 9:31 AM AKST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
931 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST W MCHUGH CREEK RECREATI 61.02N 149.74W
11/19/2015  M78.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 78 MPH WITH A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH

0708 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST W GLEN ALPS             61.10N 149.69W
11/19/2015  M88.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 88 MPH WITH A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       THOMPSON PASS           61.14N 145.75W
11/20/2015  M17.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STORM TOTAL OF 17 INCHES, 12 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. REPORT
            FROM ALASKA DOT

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       34 NNE CHASE            62.88N 149.58W
11/20/2015  E18.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RANGED FROM 6-18 INCHES ALONG PARKS HIGHWAY FROM MILEPOST
            99-163

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 N WILLOW              61.76N 150.06W
11/20/2015  E10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SW TRAPPER CREEK      62.17N 150.57W
11/20/2015  M10.3 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       13 NW TRAPPER CREEK     62.39N 150.66W
11/20/2015  E12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Nov 20, 9:41 AM AKST, 5 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
941 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       21 ESE PUNTILLA         61.96N 152.17W
11/20/2015  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL STARTING FROM YESTERDAY

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 NNW MOUNT SUSITNA     61.55N 150.78W
11/20/2015  M12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STARTED 9AM YESTERDAY AND ENDED AROUND 11PM LAST NIGHT

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TALKEETNA               62.34N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M16.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            16 INCHES TOTAL...14 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Nov 20, 10:25 AM AKST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1025 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     HEAVY SNOW       VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
11/20/2015  M15.7 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            15.7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW DEPTH OF 22 INCHES

1004 AM     SNOW             2 ENE GLENNALLEN        62.10N 145.54W
11/20/2015  M1.0 INCH                           AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

1004 AM     SNOW             N EUREKA                61.93N 147.17W
11/20/2015  E6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TALKEETNA               62.34N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M16.0 INCH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            16 INCHES TOTAL...11 INCHES SINCE 6PM LAST NIGHT

1004 AM     SNOW             KENNY LAKE              61.72N 144.95W
11/20/2015  E3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     SNOW             11 E MATANUSKA GLACIER  61.81N 147.49W
11/20/2015  M4.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     SNOW             3 W TOLSONA CREEK STATE 62.10N 146.07W
11/20/2015  M2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1004 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 S TALKEETNA           62.24N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M14.5 INCH                          AK   COCORAHS

            AS OF 7AM

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Nov 20, 10:44 AM AKST, 4 hours 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1044 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HEAVY SNOW       10 NW MOOSE CREEK STATE 61.76N 149.30W
11/20/2015  E10.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            AS OF 10PM LAST NIGHT

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Nov 20, 12:17 PM AKST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1217 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST W MCHUGH CREEK RECREATI 61.02N 149.74W
11/19/2015  M78.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 78 MPH WITH A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH

0708 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST W GLEN ALPS             61.10N 149.69W
11/19/2015  M88.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 88 MPH WITH A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       THOMPSON PASS           61.14N 145.75W
11/20/2015  M17.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STORM TOTAL OF 17 INCHES, 12 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. REPORT
            FROM ALASKA DOT

0858 AM     HEAVY SNOW       VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
11/20/2015  M15.7 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            15.7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...SNOW DEPTH OF 22 INCHES

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       13 NW TRAPPER CREEK     62.39N 150.66W
11/20/2015  E12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SW TRAPPER CREEK      62.17N 150.57W
11/20/2015  M10.3 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 N WILLOW              61.76N 150.06W
11/20/2015  E10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       34 NNE CHASE            62.88N 149.58W
11/20/2015  E18.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RANGED FROM 6-18 INCHES ALONG PARKS HIGHWAY FROM MILEPOST
            99-163

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TALKEETNA               62.34N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M16.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            16 INCHES TOTAL...14 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 NNW MOUNT SUSITNA     61.55N 150.78W
11/20/2015  M12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STARTED 9AM YESTERDAY AND ENDED AROUND 11PM LAST NIGHT

0925 AM     HEAVY SNOW       21 ESE PUNTILLA         61.96N 152.17W
11/20/2015  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL STARTING FROM YESTERDAY

1004 AM     SNOW             EUREKA                  61.93N 147.17W
11/20/2015  E6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 S TALKEETNA           62.24N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M14.5 INCH                          AK   COCORAHS

            AS OF 7AM

1004 AM     SNOW             3 W TOLSONA CREEK STATE 62.10N 146.07W
11/20/2015  M2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1004 AM     SNOW             11 E MATANUSKA GLACIER  61.81N 147.49W
11/20/2015  M4.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     SNOW             KENNY LAKE              61.72N 144.95W
11/20/2015  E3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1004 AM     SNOW             2 ENE GLENNALLEN        62.10N 145.54W
11/20/2015  M1.0 INCH                           AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

1004 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TALKEETNA               62.34N 150.09W
11/20/2015  M16.0 INCH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            16 INCHES TOTAL...11 INCHES SINCE 6PM LAST NIGHT

1044 AM     HEAVY SNOW       10 NW MOOSE CREEK STATE 61.76N 149.30W
11/20/2015  E10.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            AS OF 10PM LAST NIGHT

&&

LINGRAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr
Nov 20, 3:15 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC37 hr
Nov 20, 3:23 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Nov 20, 3:59 PM AKSTWinter Weather AdvisoryAFC29 hr
Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC3 days
Nov 21, 3:39 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC11 hr
Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days
Nov 21, 3:46 AM AKSTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:47 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 7:03 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC8 hr
Nov 21, 7:03 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC8 hr
Nov 21, 7:13 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC21 hr
Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC13 hr
Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKSTHurricane Force Wind WarningAFC13 hr
Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC61 hr
Nov 21, 2:57 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC13 hr
Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC13 hr
Nov 21, 2:59 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC4 days

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.