Gale Warning 794, NWS Anchorage, AK

075 
FZAK51 PAFC 211603 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

UPDATED ZONES 125 127 128 129 137 138 139 140 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220430-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND
AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING. A 1017 MB LOW IN THE SHELIKOF
STRAIT SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 1022 MB SUN NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES TO A TROUGH.

$$

PKZ119-220430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT BY AFTERNOON. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN 
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220430-
PORT VALDEZ-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220430-
VALDEZ ARM-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR
WHITTIER. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN 
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220430-
CHINIAK BAY-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220430-
MARMOT BAY-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
703 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

985 
FZAK51 PAFC 212359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221300-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A 1017 MB LOW WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUN MORNING AND TRACK TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN EVENING...BEFORE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF MON MORNING. A STRONG FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF ON MON.

$$

PKZ119-221300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN 
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221300-
PORT VALDEZ-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221300-
VALDEZ ARM-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221300-
CHINIAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221300-
MARMOT BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
436 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ARCTIC SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING SEA. A 100 KT JET IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION
THIS MORNING IS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE RAPIDLY REPLACED BY A FAST MOVING LOW NOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INCLUDING
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SECONDARY
CONCERN WITH THIS STORM IS THE STRONG GUSTY WEST WIND IN THE WEST
QUADRANT OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE ACCELERATED BY THE FAST MOVING
RIDGE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW IS OF CONCERN FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA ESPECIALLY IN
THE KACHEMAK BAY AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST TO
THE NUNIVAK ISLAND AREA BY SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE
NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER IS A WEAK LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA THAT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE STRONG STORM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA SAT THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. WE
EXPECT THIS STORM TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND MORE IMPORTANTLY IT MAY DEVELOP A STORM
SURGE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM TO THE
BERING STRAIT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM. THE
DETAILS IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS IS PREFERRED WITH REGARD
TO THE FAST MOVING LOW THAT WILL IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE STORM THAT WILL BE MOVING TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FETCH. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE MID TERM FOR THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO WIDELY VARIED SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER TO MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW IN ALL BUT THE MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SNOW CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT WILL BRING A BROAD AREA OF GALES AND STORM
FORCE WINDS TO GULF OF ALASKA AND COASTAL WATERS.

ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT FORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT AND
AS THE SURFACE LOW SETTLES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS A SEMI STATIONARY MESOSCALE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT SETS UP STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND OVER THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS BAND COUPLED WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP COOK INLET HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL SNOW FALL RATES SATURDAY MORNING IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY FLUFFY AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

THE STEADIER SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE
WEAK LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...GIVING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...ENOUGH WARM AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE
STORM TO ALLOW FOR A COLD RAIN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...WITH
THE ONLY SNOW FURTHER INLAND NEAR SPARREVOHN. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH IS BEING DRAWN SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT HAS GOTTEN
BOTTLED UP WEST OF THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE GULF TONIGHT...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BROAD WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDES OF THE AHKLUN
MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MORE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

A SECOND SOMEWHAT STRONGER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS...WORKING
INLAND FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INCREASED VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE LEADING A 110 KT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR THIS
PARTICULAR LOW. BY THIS POINT COLD AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SO SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THIS EVENT EVERYWHERE. A PRIMARY INGREDIENT LACKING WITH
THIS SNOWFALL EVENT IS MOISTURE...AND AS SUCH A WIDE AREA OF ONLY UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCALES. THE STORM WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
ENDING SOON THEREAFTER ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE BERING CAUSES WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER MODE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO
A LARGE AND STRONG STORM FORCE LOW WHICH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
BERING SATURDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN BERING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
MAKE EAST PROGRESS TOWARD THE MAINLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING...WHICH WILL BRING IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARMER
NORTH PACIFIC AIR AND STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO
THE 60 MPH RANGE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BERING SEA LONG THIS
FRONT WITH AN SECOND SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RISE WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE AXIS OF THE ROBUST NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GIVING A QUICK BLAST OF
COLD AIR OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO INLAND
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND TEENS ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

AT THIS POINT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. BROADLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 40N...SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
THEY ALSO AGREE IN A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND FLAT TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE DIFFICULTIES ARE
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AS THE MODELS ARE STILL PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-
FA...WITH A ROUGH LOCATION SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH A LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT JUST NORTH OF HAWAII
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS
LOW AND MOVING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN POTIONS OF KODIAK
ISLAND SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LOW AND ITS
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH IN-FA...WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN DAYS
4-7...WHICH LEANED HEAVY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 131 132 177 178.
 GALE WARNING 129 130 136 137 138 139 141 150 155 160 165 175 176
180.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/JW
LONG TERM...RF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
11/20/2015  M4.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

RDUELL