Gale Warning 795, NWS Anchorage, AK

985 
FZAK51 PAFC 212359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221300-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A 1017 MB LOW WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUN MORNING AND TRACK TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN EVENING...BEFORE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF MON MORNING. A STRONG FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF ON MON.

$$

PKZ119-221300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN 
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221300-
PORT VALDEZ-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221300-
VALDEZ ARM-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221300-
CHINIAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221300-
MARMOT BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
259 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
539 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE
MAIN EMBEDDED LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED
BY A STRONG VORTICITY MAX THAT IS PUSHING THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM
THE NORTH HAVING ALREADY DROPPED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
OVER THE BERING...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PATTERN FAIRLY WELL BUT ARE STRUGGLING
WITH TWO OF THE LOWS. THE FIRST IS THE WEAK LOW OVER THE BERING
THAT IS TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON ITS WAY INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS
LAND BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE GULF. THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THESE
DIFFERENCES IS MINOR BUT IT WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TIMING
OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WITH A LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
EC IS MOVING THE LOW MORE SLOWLY THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE FASTER TRACK OF THE CONSENSUS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT IS NOW CENTERED IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
LOCAL GAPS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING SEWARD AND
WHITTIER...INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE
QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS...WITH THE LOW FIRST MOVING ACROSS KODIAK
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT
LOW AND ALSO TO HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT...IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH SNOW THREAT TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND TODAY IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
YIELDING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG BERING FRONT ARRIVING ON ALONG THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SET TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BERING BEFORE ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATER TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BERING SEA
ALONG THIS FRONT WITH AN SECOND SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
RISE WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY...CAUSING SNOWFALL IN MOST
AREAS TO MIX OR SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AT THIS POINT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. BROADLY...THE MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 40N...SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
THEY ALSO AGREE IN A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA...SETTING
UP A BROAD AND FLAT TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE DIFFICULTIES ARE
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AS THE MODELS ARE STILL PROVIDING
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-
FA...WITH A ROUGH LOCATION SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH A LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT JUST NORTH OF HAWAII
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS
LOW AND MOVING IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN POTIONS OF KODIAK
ISLAND SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LOW AND ITS
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH IN-FA...WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN DAYS
4-7...WHICH LEANED HEAVY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 141.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 131 175 176 177 178
         GALE 129 130 132 139 141 170 172 173 174 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK/RF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
547 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.93W
11/21/2015  M4.6 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DKOCHEVA