Gale Warning 924, NWS Anchorage, AK

186 
FZAK52 PAFC 240020
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241300-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 967 MB LOW AT 180 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES. A 977
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 370 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THU
MORNING THEN TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 957 MB THU
EVENING THEN TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY AT 950 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-241300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 55 KT.
SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20
KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241300-
BRISTOL BAY-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING
SE 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT EXCEPT E 50 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241300-
UNALASKA BAY-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
W OF DUTCH HARBOR...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING T0 40 KT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT FROM ATKA E
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
ATKA E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT 40 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 27 FT.
RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT 40 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
W OF SHEMYA...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 27 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. FROM CAPE NEWENHAM N...E WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT S OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. S OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER-LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WEAK PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF ALASKA.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA. THUS ALL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN BERING YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WAS THE FORCING
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SOUTH THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING IS PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE BUCKLING OF THE JET WILL INCREASE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...ALONG WITH FORCING THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...CAUSING STRENGTHENING OF A JET STREAK THAT
WILL BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUATION
OF A COOLING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE INVERSION NOW ONLY GET TO -6C. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE REDEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS
DECK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHUGACH. THE RESULT OF THIS HAS BEEN A
QUITE UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE SETUP ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE AIRPORT IN WEST ANCHORAGE BEING AMONG THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
AREA. FORTUNATELY FOG HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS BIG A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING AS YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FOG HAS REMAINED MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG PARTS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH MORE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING
IN THAT AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT NOW ITS ONLY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO ADD
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED FOG POTENTIAL...AND ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW
FALLING IN LOCALES RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS THE BERING...THE
WEATHER STORY TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR UNDERCUTTING UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR IS MAKING FOR VERY
UNSTABLE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM COLD BAY TO SAINT PAUL...WITH BOTH
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE MIXING CAUSED BY THE DEEP-LAYER
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...WHILE POPCORN CUMULUS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE SOUTHERN BERING...THE ONLY ONES THAT ARE ABLE TO GROW
VERTICALLY ARE THE CUMULUS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING FORMING
IN THE ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED THIS MORNING EVEN IN THE
MOST VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CLOUDS. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS FOR THE ALEUTIANS...WITH A COMMA SHAPE IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DISTINCT DRY SLOT NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WEAK FEATURES CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE
BERING...AND ALEUTIANS...THE AGREEMENT DIMINISHES ON HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
INTENSIFYING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST AND ONE OF THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS. THE EC WAS
PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
STRENGTHENING THE STORM HAS ALREADY SEEN...LENDING CREDENCE TO THE
IDEA OF A STRONGER...FASTER SOLUTION AS THE STORM HEADS TOWARDS
THE BERING. WITH FAR WEAKER FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA OVER THE COMING DAYS...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. IN LARGE PART ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND AVERAGE REGARDING THE STORM HEADED FOR THE BERING
DUE TO SOME MODEL SPREAD...BUT ALSO FACTORING THE INTENSITY OF
THE STORM UP THROUGH THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FOG OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN PEAK IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED
BY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 130 KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY HELP TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY STAGNANT LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND HELPS TO BREAK UP SOME OF
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION AS A WEAK LOW
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ENHANCE
SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BRINGING A
COUPLE NEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ON THURSDAY...A LOW IN THE BERING
PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS TO 960 MB NORTH OF KISKA ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS MAY TAPER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE LOW CENTER GAINS SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FOR A LONG DURATION INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOLUTION OF A TRIPLE
POINT FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AROUND 40N
RAPIDLY SPINNING UP INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH
OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR BEING SUPPLIED TO THE SYSTEM BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING NORTH PACIFIC BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VERY RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS AND A RESULTING POWERFUL STORM. THEREFORE THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...BRISTOL
BAY COAST...KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS AND PASS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE LOOKS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MATURING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WRAPS COLD AIR ALOFT AROUND ITSELF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SHELIKOF STRAIT...COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH INLAND WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN.
ADDITIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED GAPS WILL PICK UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BOTH MAKE IT HARD FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND.

THE DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
STRONG LOWS INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. STORMS ENTERING THE GULF WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE
WEAKENING PHASE OR REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER JET.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178 185.
         GALE WARNING 127 128 129 130 131 165 166 171 172
                      173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR