Gale Warning 851, NWS Anchorage, AK

743 
FZAK62 PAFC 240020
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241430-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW AT 53N 179E MOVES TO 54N 178W AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON
THEN DISSIPATES. A 977 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 168W THU
MORNING THEN TO 52N 167W AT 957 MB THU EVENING THEN TO 54N 164W AT
950 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

645 
FZAK62 PAFC 240948 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-242215-
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW AT 53N 179E MOVES TO 54N 178W AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON
THEN DISSIPATES. A 977 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 168W THU
MORNING THEN TO 52N 167W AT 957 MB THU EVENING THEN TO 54N 164W AT
950 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-242215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 34 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-242215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-242215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-242215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

867 
FZAK62 PAFC 241231
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250315-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW AT 54N 180 MOVES TO 53N 175W AS A 968 MB LOW THU
NIGHT AND DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO A SECOND LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SECOND LOW
NEAR 45N 170W DRIVES TO 54N 166W AS A 951 MB LOW FRI MORNING THEN
SHIFTS TO 54N 160W AS 961 MB LOW BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-250315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 TO 35 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ412-250315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE TO NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 24 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-250315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. E OF 177W...SE
WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 30 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
TO 19 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 29 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-250315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER-LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WEAK PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF ALASKA.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA. THUS ALL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN BERING YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WAS THE FORCING
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SOUTH THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING IS PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE BUCKLING OF THE JET WILL INCREASE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...ALONG WITH FORCING THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...CAUSING STRENGTHENING OF A JET STREAK THAT
WILL BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUATION
OF A COOLING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE INVERSION NOW ONLY GET TO -6C. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE REDEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS
DECK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHUGACH. THE RESULT OF THIS HAS BEEN A
QUITE UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE SETUP ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE AIRPORT IN WEST ANCHORAGE BEING AMONG THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
AREA. FORTUNATELY FOG HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS BIG A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING AS YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FOG HAS REMAINED MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG PARTS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH MORE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING
IN THAT AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT NOW ITS ONLY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO ADD
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED FOG POTENTIAL...AND ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW
FALLING IN LOCALES RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS THE BERING...THE
WEATHER STORY TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR UNDERCUTTING UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR IS MAKING FOR VERY
UNSTABLE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM COLD BAY TO SAINT PAUL...WITH BOTH
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE MIXING CAUSED BY THE DEEP-LAYER
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...WHILE POPCORN CUMULUS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE SOUTHERN BERING...THE ONLY ONES THAT ARE ABLE TO GROW
VERTICALLY ARE THE CUMULUS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING FORMING
IN THE ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED THIS MORNING EVEN IN THE
MOST VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CLOUDS. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS FOR THE ALEUTIANS...WITH A COMMA SHAPE IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DISTINCT DRY SLOT NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WEAK FEATURES CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE
BERING...AND ALEUTIANS...THE AGREEMENT DIMINISHES ON HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
INTENSIFYING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST AND ONE OF THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS. THE EC WAS
PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
STRENGTHENING THE STORM HAS ALREADY SEEN...LENDING CREDENCE TO THE
IDEA OF A STRONGER...FASTER SOLUTION AS THE STORM HEADS TOWARDS
THE BERING. WITH FAR WEAKER FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA OVER THE COMING DAYS...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. IN LARGE PART ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND AVERAGE REGARDING THE STORM HEADED FOR THE BERING
DUE TO SOME MODEL SPREAD...BUT ALSO FACTORING THE INTENSITY OF
THE STORM UP THROUGH THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FOG OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN PEAK IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED
BY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 130 KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY HELP TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY STAGNANT LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND HELPS TO BREAK UP SOME OF
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION AS A WEAK LOW
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ENHANCE
SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BRINGING A
COUPLE NEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ON THURSDAY...A LOW IN THE BERING
PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS TO 960 MB NORTH OF KISKA ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS MAY TAPER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE LOW CENTER GAINS SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FOR A LONG DURATION INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOLUTION OF A TRIPLE
POINT FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AROUND 40N
RAPIDLY SPINNING UP INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH
OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR BEING SUPPLIED TO THE SYSTEM BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING NORTH PACIFIC BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VERY RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS AND A RESULTING POWERFUL STORM. THEREFORE THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...BRISTOL
BAY COAST...KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS AND PASS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE LOOKS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MATURING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WRAPS COLD AIR ALOFT AROUND ITSELF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SHELIKOF STRAIT...COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH INLAND WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN.
ADDITIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED GAPS WILL PICK UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BOTH MAKE IT HARD FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND.

THE DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
STRONG LOWS INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. STORMS ENTERING THE GULF WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE
WEAKENING PHASE OR REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER JET.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178 185.
         GALE WARNING 127 128 129 130 131 165 166 171 172
                      173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR