Small Craft Advisory 1021, NWS Anchorage, AK

508 
FZAK51 PAFC 240043
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241330-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHWEST OF SITKA WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AND DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-241330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NORTH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-241330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-241330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-241330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-241330-
PORT VALDEZ-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-241330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-241330-
VALDEZ ARM-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-241330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-241330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-241330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-241330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N
OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-241330-
CHINIAK BAY-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-241330-
MARMOT BAY-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-241330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-241330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 KT S OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS
2 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT S OF ANCHOR POINT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-241330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-241330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT OVER THE OUTER
BAY. SEAS 2 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT OVER THE OUTER BAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT OVER THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT OVER THE OUTER BAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT 20 KT OVER THE OUTER BAY. SEAS
2 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT OVER THE OUTER BAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

429 
FZAK51 PAFC 241228
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250045-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1006 MB LOW OVER PORT ALEXANDER ANCHORS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COASTS. THIS
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND
DRIVES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF COASTS BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-250045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250045-
PORT VALDEZ-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250045-
VALDEZ ARM-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-250045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250045-
CHINIAK BAY-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250045-
MARMOT BAY-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
328 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

514 
FZAK51 PAFC 250034
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251315-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 973 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL INTENSIFY TO 952
MB 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN
TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR SITKINAK SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-251315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251315-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251315-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251315-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251315-
MARMOT BAY-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF ANCHOR POINT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER-LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WEAK PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF ALASKA.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA. THUS ALL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE EASTERN BERING YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WAS THE FORCING
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SOUTH THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING IS PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE BUCKLING OF THE JET WILL INCREASE BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EAST OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...ALONG WITH FORCING THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...CAUSING STRENGTHENING OF A JET STREAK THAT
WILL BUILD A RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUATION
OF A COOLING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE INVERSION NOW ONLY GET TO -6C. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE REDEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS
DECK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHUGACH. THE RESULT OF THIS HAS BEEN A
QUITE UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE SETUP ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE AIRPORT IN WEST ANCHORAGE BEING AMONG THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
AREA. FORTUNATELY FOG HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS BIG A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING AS YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FOG HAS REMAINED MORE OF A FACTOR ALONG PARTS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH MORE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERING
IN THAT AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT NOW ITS ONLY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO ADD
MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED FOG POTENTIAL...AND ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW
FALLING IN LOCALES RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS THE BERING...THE
WEATHER STORY TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR UNDERCUTTING UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR IS MAKING FOR VERY
UNSTABLE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM COLD BAY TO SAINT PAUL...WITH BOTH
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE MIXING CAUSED BY THE DEEP-LAYER
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...WHILE POPCORN CUMULUS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE SOUTHERN BERING...THE ONLY ONES THAT ARE ABLE TO GROW
VERTICALLY ARE THE CUMULUS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING FORMING
IN THE ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED THIS MORNING EVEN IN THE
MOST VERTICALLY DEVELOPED CLOUDS. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS FOR THE ALEUTIANS...WITH A COMMA SHAPE IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DISTINCT DRY SLOT NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WEAK FEATURES CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE
BERING...AND ALEUTIANS...THE AGREEMENT DIMINISHES ON HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
INTENSIFYING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST AND ONE OF THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS. THE EC WAS
PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
STRENGTHENING THE STORM HAS ALREADY SEEN...LENDING CREDENCE TO THE
IDEA OF A STRONGER...FASTER SOLUTION AS THE STORM HEADS TOWARDS
THE BERING. WITH FAR WEAKER FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA OVER THE COMING DAYS...THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. IN LARGE PART ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON THE EAST SIDE WITH A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND AVERAGE REGARDING THE STORM HEADED FOR THE BERING
DUE TO SOME MODEL SPREAD...BUT ALSO FACTORING THE INTENSITY OF
THE STORM UP THROUGH THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE OUTFLOW
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FOG OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ALONG THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN PEAK IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED
BY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 130 KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY HELP TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FAIRLY STAGNANT LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND HELPS TO BREAK UP SOME OF
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION AS A WEAK LOW
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ENHANCE
SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BRINGING A
COUPLE NEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ON THURSDAY...A LOW IN THE BERING
PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS TO 960 MB NORTH OF KISKA ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS MAY TAPER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE LOW CENTER GAINS SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS FOR A LONG DURATION INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SOLUTION OF A TRIPLE
POINT FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AROUND 40N
RAPIDLY SPINNING UP INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH
OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR BEING SUPPLIED TO THE SYSTEM BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING NORTH PACIFIC BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA OF VERY RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS AND A RESULTING POWERFUL STORM. THEREFORE THINK THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...BRISTOL
BAY COAST...KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS AND PASS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE LOOKS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MATURING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
WRAPS COLD AIR ALOFT AROUND ITSELF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SHELIKOF STRAIT...COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH INLAND WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN.
ADDITIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
OTHER SIMILARLY ORIENTED GAPS WILL PICK UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL BOTH MAKE IT HARD FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING FRONT TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND.

THE DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
STRONG LOWS INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. STORMS ENTERING THE GULF WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE
WEAKENING PHASE OR REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER JET.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178 185.
         GALE WARNING 127 128 129 130 131 165 166 171 172
                      173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR