Gale Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

886 
FZAK52 PAFC 160012
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161245-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO NEAR COLD
BAY AT 972 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN TO NEAR MEKORYUK TUE AFTERNOON AT
990 MB.

$$

PKZ150-161245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161245-
BRISTOL BAY-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 40 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161245-
UNALASKA BAY-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-161245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
436 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSED BY A LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL. IT IS PRIMARILY RAIN BUT
IS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FURTHER INLAND. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT A LOW
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME
DISCREPANCIES DO ARISE WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
WHILE THE GEM IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING INLAND AS A STRONGER
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW AFTER SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
WITH A WARMER AIR MASS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
PORTAGE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI. THIS LOW WEAKENS SUNDAY
MORNING AND WINDS TAPER OFF. HOWEVER THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
STORM WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG EASTERN KENAI AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
PUSH INLAND AS AN OVERRUNNING WARMER AIR MASS GLIDES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MAINLAND. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DECAYING WEST OF COOK INLET WILL
SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES
TONIGHT. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT FRONT
FROM NORTH PACIFIC WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUN AND MON. WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATER ON
SUN WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND SUN NIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST
OF BETHEL. THIS THREAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE ON MONDAY.
STRONG WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DECAYING LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AND SOME WIND TO THAT AREA AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A STRONG FRONT WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS AND MAINLY RAIN TO THE AKPEN AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN INTO MON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING
AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT TRACKING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...KEEPING THE
ALASKAN MAINLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ALLOWING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING CONTRIBUTING
TO A MORE SPORADIC AND SHOWERY REGIME OVER INLAND AREAS. THE
BERING WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A GENERALLY SHOWERY PATTERN BENEATH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA WELL INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130 131 132 138 150 155
         GALE 136 137 139 141 160 165 170 172 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB