Gale Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

436 
FZAK62 PAFC 160012
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161445-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 52N 159W WILL MOVE TO NEAR COLD BAY AT 972 MB
MON AFTERNOON THEN TO NEAR MEKORYUK TUE AFTERNOON AT 990 MB.

$$

PKZ411-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
312 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

832 
FZAK62 PAFC 161250
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170145-
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 53N 163W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 166W AT 980 MB
MON NIGHT THEN TO NEAR GAMBELL ISLAND TUE NIGHT AT 993 MB.

$$

PKZ411-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
350 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
3 TO 6 FT.

$$

286 
FZAK62 PAFC 170016
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171415-
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 55N 165W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 61N 166W AT 986 MB
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 65N 166W WED AFTERNOON AT 998 MB.

$$

PKZ411-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
316 PM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
436 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSED BY A LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL. IT IS PRIMARILY RAIN BUT
IS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FURTHER INLAND. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT A LOW
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME
DISCREPANCIES DO ARISE WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
WHILE THE GEM IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING INLAND AS A STRONGER
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW AFTER SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
WITH A WARMER AIR MASS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
PORTAGE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI. THIS LOW WEAKENS SUNDAY
MORNING AND WINDS TAPER OFF. HOWEVER THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF.

THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
STORM WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG EASTERN KENAI AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
PUSH INLAND AS AN OVERRUNNING WARMER AIR MASS GLIDES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MAINLAND. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DECAYING WEST OF COOK INLET WILL
SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES
TONIGHT. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT FRONT
FROM NORTH PACIFIC WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUN AND MON. WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATER ON
SUN WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND SUN NIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST
OF BETHEL. THIS THREAT WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE ON MONDAY.
STRONG WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DECAYING LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AND SOME WIND TO THAT AREA AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A STRONG FRONT WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS AND MAINLY RAIN TO THE AKPEN AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN INTO MON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING
AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT TRACKING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...KEEPING THE
ALASKAN MAINLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ALLOWING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING CONTRIBUTING
TO A MORE SPORADIC AND SHOWERY REGIME OVER INLAND AREAS. THE
BERING WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A GENERALLY SHOWERY PATTERN BENEATH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA WELL INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 130 131 132 138 150 155
         GALE 136 137 139 141 160 165 170 172 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB