Storm Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

255 
FZAK61 PAFC 151244
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160200-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND LINGERS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-160200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-160200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 20
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

660 
FZAK61 PAFC 160032
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161445-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
TONIGHT THEN PUSHES INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-161445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-161445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

970 
FZAK61 PAFC 161243
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170200-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PUSH INLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-170200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-170200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA THOUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA...EXTENDING WELL
SOUTH INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE LONG-WAVE REMAINS CENTERED WEST
OF UNALASKA WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDE THE JET FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE GULF. THE WEST COAST NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE HAS BEEN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED BY THE WAVE
TRAIN...BUT RIDGING STILL SITS OVER THE INTERIOR BENDING BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE CURRENT WAVE-DU-JOUR ENCOMPASSES THE
WESTERN GULF BUT DOESN'T HAVE AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS MAINLY IMPACTING
THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ZONE AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
NORTH GULF COAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE COOK INLET REGION REMAINS DOWNSLOPED. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELDS...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS AS WELL AS THE WEAKENING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
HOWEVER...WHAT DO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS DO? FOR THE MOST PART
GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING A DOWNSLOPE REGIME SETTING UP BUT THE CORE
OF THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW LOOKS BOTH EASTERLY AND NEAR OR ABOVE
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL...BOTH OF WHICH BODE WELL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SLOPPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SIGNAL IS SHOWN BY
THE GFS AND ECMWF WHEREAS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA MAINLY DRY UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. THE BIGGER
STORY COMES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SENDS A STRONG FRONT INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND
MOVE INTO COOK INLET. EARLY ON TODAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN
FALLING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL START TO WORK SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA.
ANCHORAGE WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY BUT A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
COULD MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN AS A
WARM LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SHOULD WET-BULB OUT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF
TURNAGAIN ARM AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO MOST OF
ANCHORAGE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY. LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...THE WEATHER
THIS MORNING IS FAIRLY QUIET OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE LOW IN THE GULF CURRENTLY
STRETCHES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL START LIFTING
NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE GULF LOW SWINGS INLAND AND NORTH
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THIS EVENING AND THE KUSKOKWIM ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

THE NEXT RATHER POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY...CROSS INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING MONDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCELERATION THROUGH
GAPS AND PASSES AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT WILL BRING A
BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WARMING CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW MIXING OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST LONGER
KEEPING SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
OVERRUNNING INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...FOR THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST WITH
SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TAPERING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER WEST. THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BE REPLACED BY THE NEW STRONGER LOW
HEADED FOR UNIMAK PASS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING JUST SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND. THESE FEATURES ARE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH
A STORM FORCE LOW JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND A WEATHER FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL BRING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
GULF AND SPREAD INLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TURNAGAIN ARM...THE BARREN ISLANDS AND GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GFS/EC MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW POSITIONED
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...EXCEPT FOR THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER IN
PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA
ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLAND LATE
MONDAY AND BECOME ELONGATED WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND ALONG THE COASTLINES. THIS WILL BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MODEL TRACKS THE LOW NEAR SEWARD...VERSUS THE
ECMWF MODEL TRACKING THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY. THE GFS STORM
TRACK WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF STORM TRACK WILL BRING LESS PRECIPITATION. THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BERING SEA WILL HAVE
PREDOMINANT NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
SIBERIA REMAINING IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY
THERE WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH MORE WARM BEING PUSHED INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BEFORE SPILLING OVER INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 138 150 155 160 165 170 172
                        175 177 180.
         STORM WARNING...132 136 137.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PLD