Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tulsa, OK

167 
WWUS54 KTSA 022101
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARC007-143-OKC001-041-022145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-141002T2145Z/
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-DELAWARE OK-ADAIR OK-
401 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND BENTON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
ADAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF HIWASSE TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
REGIONAL AIRPORT TO WEST SILOAM SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...FAIRMOUNT...LAKE FRANCIS...
  MILLER...VAUGHN...BELLA VISTA...HIGHFILL...BENTONVILLE...
  GALLITIN...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...ROCKY COMFORT...
  HEALING SPRINGS...PEA RIDGE...CAVE SPRINGS...AVOCA...SAVOY...
  ROGERS...HARMON...HILL TOP...WHEELER...ELM SPRINGS...WALNUT HILL...
  GARFIELD...TONTITOWN...LOWELL...MONTE NE...OAK GROVE...JOHNSON...
  SHADY GROVE AND SPRINGDALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9461 3650 9394 3647 9394 3609 9409
      3608 9480 3617 9480 3637 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 264DEG 44KT 3651 9430 3635 9430
          3616 9457

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

001 
WWUS54 KTSA 022117
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARC007-143-OKC001-041-022127-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-141002T2145Z/
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-DELAWARE OK-ADAIR OK-
417 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BENTON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN ADAIR AND
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3651 9461 3650 9394 3647 9394 3609 9409
      3608 9480 3617 9480 3637 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 264DEG 44KT 3653 9406 3637 9406
          3618 9433

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

TSRA POTENTIAL HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
HAIL AND SHIFTING WINDS. WILL HANDLE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
AMENDMENTS WITH THE EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA NOT YET FORMED. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT BEFORE
THEY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.

THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR ALONG
A COLD FRONT...SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
ITSELF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THAT SAW
A LOT OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENPOOL                35.96N 96.01W
10/02/2014                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            LARGE TRAMPOLINE BLOWN UPRIGHT AGAINST HOUSE

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEBBERS FALLS           35.51N 95.13W
10/02/2014  M83 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W WEBBERS FALLS         35.51N 95.13W
10/02/2014                   MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN WARNER AND
            WEBBERS FALLS ON INTERSECTION OF HWY 64 AND ROSS RD.

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ010-OKZ069-022130-
ADAIR OK-WASHINGTON AR-
344 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 344 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STILWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BARON...
LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...HOGEYE...MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL...
SUMMERS...RHEA...VINEY GROVE...WEDINGTON AND ADAIR STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3567 9470 3579 9481 3581 9481 3610 9441
      3592 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 232DEG 43KT 3577 9469

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ073>075-022130-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
346 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN HASKELL...SOUTHERN PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 346 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM QUINTON TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNA...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...WILBURTON...
HIGGINS...DAMON...GOWEN...PANOLA...RED OAK...SAVANNA...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON...QUINTON AND ROBBERS CAVE STATE
PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3476 9596 3515 9537 3526 9486 3520 9489
      3520 9493 3514 9493 3472 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 261DEG 30KT 3513 9534 3479 9583

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INOLA                   36.15N 95.51W
10/02/2014                   ROGERS             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PART OF A ROOF MISSING FROM A HOME

&&

DMJ