Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

TSRA POTENTIAL HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
HAIL AND SHIFTING WINDS. WILL HANDLE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
AMENDMENTS WITH THE EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA NOT YET FORMED. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT BEFORE
THEY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.

THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR ALONG
A COLD FRONT...SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
ITSELF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THAT SAW
A LOT OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ073-022030-
PITTSBURG OK-
241 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 242 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ARPELAR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...HAYWOOD...ARPELAR...SCIPIO...BLOCKER...
CROWDER...INDIANOLA...CANADIAN AND ARROWHEAD STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3514 9593 3520 9558 3504 9555 3483 9607
      3497 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 228DEG 31KT 3496 9596

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             7 W GENTRY              36.27N 94.61W
10/02/2014  E0.88 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM     HAIL             BENTONVILLE             36.37N 94.21W
10/02/2014  E1.25 INCH       BENTON             AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 8 MINUTES, RANGED FROM NICKEL TO HALF
            DOLLAR SIZE.

0230 PM     HAIL             OWASSO                  36.27N 95.85W
10/02/2014  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND EAST OF
            OWASSO.

0235 PM     HAIL             OWASSO                  36.27N 95.85W
10/02/2014  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF OWASSO.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S TULSA                 36.13N 95.92W
10/02/2014                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN OVER SHERIDAN RD AND 108TH ST S.

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COWETA                  35.95N 95.65W
10/02/2014                   WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE NEAR COWETA, AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            101ST AND 225TH STREETS.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ070-071-022030-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
252 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MUSKOGEE

AT 252 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...
ONAPA...RENTIESVILLE...COUNCIL HILL...OKTAHA...KEEFETON...
WAINWRIGHT...SUMMIT AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3568 9562 3566 9514 3530 9552 3533 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 220DEG 31KT 3534 9559

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ068-070-072-022030-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
257 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHWESTERN
     SEQUOYAH

AT 257 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WARNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GORE...BOX...WARNER...WEBBERS
FALLS...GREENLEAF STATE PARK AND LAKE TENKILLER STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3563 9479 3537 9521 3546 9535 3548 9534
      3579 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 227DEG 34KT 3549 9522