Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

TSRA POTENTIAL HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
HAIL AND SHIFTING WINDS. WILL HANDLE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
AMENDMENTS WITH THE EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA NOT YET FORMED. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT BEFORE
THEY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.

LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.

THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OF AN OKEMAH TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.
	ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...POSING A
LIMITED HAIL AND GUSTY WIND RISK. THE MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN A BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL...LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ054-059-064-021800-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 1217 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF HALLETT TO 7 MILES WEST OF
DRUMRIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3659 9600 3616 9628 3616 9630 3614 9630
      3593 9644 3593 9662 3615 9663 3616 9673
      3639 9667 3680 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 225DEG 36KT 3629 9653 3605 9670

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HAIL             1 S BROKEN ARROW        36.04N 95.79W
10/02/2014  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ002-011-021815-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 1229 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HINDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3595 9394 3609 9394 3621 9390 3624 9387
      3628 9387 3650 9363 3650 9346 3625 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 230DEG 34KT 3613 9387

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ060>062-067-021815-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...ROGERS...EASTERN TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN
     WAGONER

AT 1232 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF
ONETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...INOLA...
CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...BROKEN ARROW...ONETA AND
CHOUTEAU.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9555 3619 9518 3594 9575 3612 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 236DEG 27KT 3604 9573

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ060-064-066-021815-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN TULSA

AT 1238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
MOUNDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...GRAY...
HECTORVILLE...SAND SPRINGS...LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...
SLICK...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA AND JENKS RIVERSIDE
AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3586 9638 3616 9613 3615 9602 3595 9576
      3591 9576 3590 9579 3590 9581 3588 9582
      3570 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 224DEG 38KT 3587 9615

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

OKZ073-021815-
PITTSBURG OK-
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 1240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ASHLAND...HAYWOOD...ARPELAR AND
SCIPIO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3486 9609 3502 9610 3515 9599 3502 9565
      3474 9607 3476 9610 3486 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 226DEG 28KT 3486 9608