Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 531

October 12, 201435 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 12, 2014, 11:08 PM CDT for 35 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 12, 2014, 11:08 PM CDT (04:08 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2014, 5:49 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 35 counties

Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 11:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDJack, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Young62 min
Oct 13, 12:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDMontague, Wise54 min
Oct 13, 12:36 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDParker, Wise54 min
Oct 13, 12:39 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCooke66 min
Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDWise36 min
Oct 13, 1:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDenton, Tarrant55 min
Oct 13, 1:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDLampasas64 min
Oct 13, 1:47 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Dallas, Denton, Grayson, Tarrant58 min
Oct 13, 2:38 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Dallas, Hunt, Kaufman, Rockwall67 min
Oct 13, 2:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDHill, Limestone, McLennan63 min
Oct 13, 2:49 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDelta, Fannin, Hunt, Lamar56 min
Oct 13, 2:59 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningFWDMcLennan3 hr
Oct 13, 3:59 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDAnderson, Freestone, Navarro31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2014-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 17 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2014-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-404 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
641 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
253 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

165 
WWUS20 KWNS 130409
SEL1  
SPC WW 130409
TXZ000-131200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM
  UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN
TEXAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WACO TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 529...WW 530...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A
COUPLE TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Borden, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 31 more7 hr
Oct 12, 9:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Fisher, Foard, Haskell and 10 more58 min
Oct 12, 10:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton, Ellis and 20 more58 min
Oct 13, 1:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 17 more91 min
Oct 13, 2:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Camp, Cass and 50 more92 min
Oct 13, 3:22 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Angelina, Bell, Bowie, Brazos, Burleson and 31 more8 hr
Oct 13, 6:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Angelina, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 25 more86 min
Oct 13, 7:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCSabine7 hr
Oct 13, 10:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSabine115 min
Oct 13, 11:10 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 2 more8 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2014Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.