Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms extended from Crockett County
northeast across the Concho Valley and Big Country at 11 PM. NAM and
GFS models indicate the showers and thunderstorms to continue the
next several hours and may continue through the day, with at least
light showers, for KABI. Kept thunder in for KSJT until 10Z and 12Z
for KABI.  MVFR stratus has developed over much of the CWA and this
should lift to VFR in the early afternoon. Similar shower and
thunderstorm setup for Sunday, with another round of scattered
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. KABI and KSJT have the
best chance of rain...should occasionally see thunderstorms mid
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
.UPDATE...
Update for severe thunderstorm watch 184 until 4 AM CDT for Sutton,
Crockett, and Schleicher counties. Also updated overnight
temperatures and adjusted pops higher for current radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm outflow boundary has pushed south to Ozona to Eldorado
line at 10 PM. Areas to the south of the boundary, in the warmer
sector, are the most unstable, and a severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued until 4 AM for southwest sections of West Central Texas.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Strong to Severe thunderstorms were developing along and north of
an thunderstorm outflow boundary extending from Big Lake to San
Angelo to near Cross Plains at 23Z.

KSJT have the best potential for storms this evening, some of which
could produce large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Severe
storms to the southwest could follow outflow boundary northeast, and
affect KSJT, mainly after 1Z. Keeping VCTS at KABI through the TAF
period, and KSJT tonight and late Sunday afternoon.

MVFR stratus redevelops after midnight at all sites, rising to
VFR 18-19Z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
The main concern in the next 24 hours is the potential for severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Currently, a complex of
thunderstorms is moving across the Big Country. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail, strong damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall. An outflow boundary is located along a Water
Valley...to Big Lake...to McCamey line, and is showing signs of
slowing down. Additional convection is firing across West Texas, in
a very unstable atmosphere. This convection will have the potential
to move into mainly our western counties later this afternoon and
this evening, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for these areas
through 10 PM. Although large hail, damaging winds, and lightning
look to be the main threats, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially during the early evening hours. We have increased PoPs
across much of the area, ranging from likely west to low end chance
across the southeast counties. Several models indicate another
shortwave trough moving into West Texas early Sunday morning,
initiating additional convection, then eventually moving it into at
least the western half  of our area. Likely PoPs were continued
across the western half of the region, with higher PoPs shifting
east across the area during the morning hours. Given all of the
mesoscale boundaries currently across the area, a lot of uncertainty
remains on the exact placement and timing of these heavy rain
events.

Given the above mentioned factors, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for all of the Big Country and Concho Valley. An additional 1
to 3 inches...with some higher amounts...will be possible this
evening through Sunday evening. The main areas of concern are urban
areas and low lying areas, including low water crossing.

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
An active weather pattern is in store with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely and a few severe storms are
possible. Currently, a strong upper level low was located near the
Four Corners region(centered along the Arizona/New Mexico state
line). The upper level low will move slowly east across the southern
Rockies Sunday and then into the southern Plains early next week.
The models are pretty consistent on the track of the upper low. All
the models are still very wet across much of West Central Texas. The
ingredients for heavy rainfall include: lots of moisture(PWATs of
1.2 to 1.6 inches), low level southerly flow and convergence (850 MB
winds 35 to 45 knots), and significant diffluence at 250 MB.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are looking pretty good across
much of the area with locally higher amounts possible. Have a Flash
Flood Watch going until 7 PM Sunday. The Flash Flood Watch may have
to be extended possibly into Monday as thunderstorm complexes(MCS
activity) will continue. In addition, severe weather may be possible
Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The combination
of good instability(MLCAPES 1500 to 2000 J/KG) and bulk 0-6KM shear
values of 35 to 40 knots will yield a few severe storms. The main
hazards will be large hail...damaging winds and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

/Wednesday through Saturday/
A quieter weather pattern for middle to late next week. The
combination of abundant low level moisture and weak upper level
northwest flow may develop isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. However, will keep the forecast dry for now.
Expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  80  67  82  66 /  70  60  50  50  60
San Angelo 	 67  81  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  40  40
Junction 	 69  81  67  82  67 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...Haskell...
Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A THROCKMORTON...TO
ABILENE...TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1001 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ076-250345-
CROCKETT TX-
1001 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 957 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF OZONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US 190 AND HIGHWAY 163 BY 1010 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 339 AND 364.

LAT...LON 3108 10096 3061 10122 3066 10161 3106 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 241DEG 30KT 3087 10125

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1018 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ071-250345-
IRION TX-
1018 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR IRION
COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 1016 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BARNHART...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTH OF OZONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHERN IRION COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF BARNHART

LAT...LON 3108 10126 3138 10095 3122 10071 3108 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 230DEG 24KT 3101 10109

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ071-072-250500-
IRION TX-TOM GREEN TX-
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
IRION AND TOM GREEN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 1112 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTH OF US-67 NEAR THE IRION-TOM GREEN COUNTY LINE...OR ABOUT 9
MILES EAST OF MERTZON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  LOCALIZED SHORT DURATION POWER OUTAGES...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE NASWORTHY BY 1130 PM CDT
  O.C. FISHER RESERVOIR AND SAN ANGELO STATE PARK BY 1135 PM CDT
  SAN ANGELO AND GOODFELLOW AIR FORCE BASE BY 1140 PM CDT
  HARRIET AND VERIBEST BY 1155 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3152 10085 3170 10054 3170 10050 3159 10024
      3138 10011 3111 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 229DEG 33KT 3132 10065

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ072-250500-
TOM GREEN TX-
1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR TOM
GREEN COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 1134 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF
SAN ANGELO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GOODFELLOW AIR FORCE BASE AND WALL BY 1140 PM CDT
  VERIBEST BY 1155 PM CDT
  HARRIET AND ORIENT BY MIDNIGHT CDT

LAT...LON 3112 10033 3152 10069 3170 10032 3137 10011
      3130 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 218DEG 24KT 3142 10045

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXZ073-154-250615-
MCCULLOCH TX-CONCHO TX-
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR
MCCULLOCH AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 1222 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WERE INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM PAINT ROCK TO EDEN...
...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLERSVIEW AND THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 1929 AND RANCH ROAD
  2134 BY 1240 AM CDT
  DOOLE AND SALT GAP BY 1250 AM CDT
  PEAR VALLEY BY 100 AM CDT
  WALDRIP AND LOHN BY 110 AM CDT

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3156 10008 3154 9971 3147 9962 3146 9953
      3143 9952 3145 9949 3142 9947 3145 9944
      3144 9939 3110 9942 3108 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 258DEG 32KT 3137 9986

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