Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Strong to Severe thunderstorms were developing along and north of
an thunderstorm outflow boundary extending from Big Lake to San
Angelo to near Cross Plains at 23Z.

KSJT have the best potential for storms this evening, some of which
could produce large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Severe
storms to the southwest could follow outflow boundary northeast, and
affect KSJT, mainly after 1Z. Keeping VCTS at KABI through the TAF
period, and KSJT tonight and late Sunday afternoon.

MVFR stratus redevelops after midnight at all sites, rising to
VFR 18-19Z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
The main concern in the next 24 hours is the potential for severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Currently, a complex of
thunderstorms is moving across the Big Country. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail, strong damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall. An outflow boundary is located along a Water
Valley...to Big Lake...to McCamey line, and is showing signs of
slowing down. Additional convection is firing across West Texas, in
a very unstable atmosphere. This convection will have the potential
to move into mainly our western counties later this afternoon and
this evening, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for these areas
through 10 PM. Although large hail, damaging winds, and lightning
look to be the main threats, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially during the early evening hours. We have increased PoPs
across much of the area, ranging from likely west to low end chance
across the southeast counties. Several models indicate another
shortwave trough moving into West Texas early Sunday morning,
initiating additional convection, then eventually moving it into at
least the western half  of our area. Likely PoPs were continued
across the western half of the region, with higher PoPs shifting
east across the area during the morning hours. Given all of the
mesoscale boundaries currently across the area, a lot of uncertainty
remains on the exact placement and timing of these heavy rain
events.

Given the above mentioned factors, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for all of the Big Country and Concho Valley. An additional 1
to 3 inches...with some higher amounts...will be possible this
evening through Sunday evening. The main areas of concern are urban
areas and low lying areas, including low water crossing.

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
An active weather pattern is in store with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely and a few severe storms are
possible. Currently, a strong upper level low was located near the
Four Corners region(centered along the Arizona/New Mexico state
line). The upper level low will move slowly east across the southern
Rockies Sunday and then into the southern Plains early next week.
The models are pretty consistent on the track of the upper low. All
the models are still very wet across much of West Central Texas. The
ingredients for heavy rainfall include: lots of moisture(PWATs of
1.2 to 1.6 inches), low level southerly flow and convergence (850 MB
winds 35 to 45 knots), and significant diffluence at 250 MB.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are looking pretty good across
much of the area with locally higher amounts possible. Have a Flash
Flood Watch going until 7 PM Sunday. The Flash Flood Watch may have
to be extended possibly into Monday as thunderstorm complexes(MCS
activity) will continue. In addition, severe weather may be possible
Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The combination
of good instability(MLCAPES 1500 to 2000 J/KG) and bulk 0-6KM shear
values of 35 to 40 knots will yield a few severe storms. The main
hazards will be large hail...damaging winds and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

/Wednesday through Saturday/
A quieter weather pattern for middle to late next week. The
combination of abundant low level moisture and weak upper level
northwest flow may develop isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. However, will keep the forecast dry for now.
Expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  80  67  82  66 /  70  60  50  50  60
San Angelo 	 67  81  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  40  40
Junction 	 69  81  67  82  67 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...Haskell...
Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

14/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A THROCKMORTON...TO
ABILENE...TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ139-250100-
COLEMAN TX-
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 724 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
LEADAY...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VOSS BY 735 PM CDT
  TALPA BY 755 PM CDT
  VALERA...FISK AND HORDS CREEK RESERVOIR BY 800 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3149 9960 3155 9967 3156 9967 3155 9968
      3158 9972 3181 9972 3199 9956 3182 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 212DEG 12KT 3164 9965

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
828 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ065-071-072-250215-
IRION TX-TOM GREEN TX-COKE TX-
828 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
IRION...TOM GREEN AND COKE COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

AT 824 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
TANKERSLEY...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF SAN ANGELO...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  SOME LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SAN ANGELO STATE PARK BY 835 PM CDT
  O.C. FISHER RESERVOIR...LAKE NASWORTHY AND GRAPE CREEK BY 840 PM
  CDT
  SAN ANGELO BY 845 PM CDT
  GOODFELLOW AIR FORCE BASE BY 850 PM CDT
  WALL BY 900 PM CDT
  HARRIET BY 905 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  SOUTHWEST BLVD AND LOOP 306...
  HOWARD AND WEBSTER...
  JACKSON FROM KNICKERBOCKER TO S BRYANT...
  COLLEGE HILLS AND MILBROOK...
  HUNTINGTON AND SUNSET...
  SUL ROSS AT RED ARROYO CROSSING...
  PARKWOOD AND LINDENWOOD...
  300 BLOCK OF NORTH ARCHER...
  DOOR KEY CROSSING PECAN CREEK...
  BROOK HOLLOW AND SUNSET...
  WALNUT GROVE CROSSING GRAPE CREEK...
  MARCH CROSSING EAST FORK GRAPE CREEK...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF IRION...TOM GREEN AND
COKE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3128 10084 3156 10090 3157 10086 3165 10086
      3179 10036 3128 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 252DEG 26KT 3143 10059

DANIELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
842 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ071-250215-
IRION TX-
842 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR IRION
COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 838 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
REAGAN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF BIG LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN ACROSS...
WESTERN IRION COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 411...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF IRION COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3146 10127 3153 10103 3153 10101 3128 10086
      3108 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 235DEG 22KT 3121 10130

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ139-250215-
COLEMAN TX-
844 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 842 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FISK...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTA ANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHIELDS BY 850 PM CDT
  COLEMAN BY 915 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  FM-RD 136 CROSSING HORDS CREEK...
  COUNTY ROAD 348 CROSSING BULL CREEK...
  COUNTY ROAD 300 CROSSING HOME CREEK...
  COUNTY ROAD 258 CROSSING HOME CREEK...
  CR 270 CROSSING HOME CREEK...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF COLEMAN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3152 9934 3149 9965 3177 9960 3190 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 242DEG 11KT 3166 9950