Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather conditions to continue across
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy
rainfall, from some showers and most thunderstorms, will briefly
reduce runway visibility into at least MVFR ranges and possibly IFR
ranges. Beyond 09Z tonight, confidence in thunderstorms impacting
terminals is not high. Also, plan for MVFR ceilings for all
terminals by 12Z tomorrow morning.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT Sun May 25 2014/

UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast for today to remove the
diurnal timing for showers and thunderstorms today. Recent
radar imagery shows considerable development of showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas into our western counties.
The convection moving to the northeast and will overspread
much of our area this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Prevailing conditions will remain primarily VFR through the next
12-18 hours. Conditions will be improving at KJCT and KBBD in the
wake of the early morning MCS that plowed through the area.
However, convection is becoming widespread across the area
(especially to the west) and temporary reductions in visibilities
to less than 2 miles and ceilings under 2000 ft will accompany
thunderstorms as they affect the forecast terminals. The primary
concern this morning will reside at KSJT and KABI where there is a
realistic chance of thunder on station at any given hour through
12z Monday. However, the time was limited to the period from mid
morning through the evening hours. TAFs will be amended as the
temporal and areal uncertainties diminish.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include all of the West
Central Texas counties, and have extended it to include both today
and tonight. The forecast concerns continue to revolve around heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding potential, and severe weather.

Convection has continued into early this morning over our central
and southern counties, with light showers to the north. The
stronger storms with heavier rainfall are across the southeastern
part of our area. This convection is expected to slowly weaken and
eventually diminish through mid-morning. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms is moving east across the Panhandle and
northwest Texas early this morning. This may send an outflow
boundary to the southeast toward our northwestern counties later
this morning and early this afternoon. The outflow boundary from
the convection farther south has worked into our southeastern
counties. Will monitor for monitor for potential convective
initiation along these boundaries this afternoon.

The upper level low over northwestern New Mexico will lift into
far southern Colorado today, then will begin to shift to the
southeast tonight. This upper low is progged to move southeast
into the Texas Panhandle Monday on evening, then into southwestern
Oklahoma on Tuesday morning.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
our area during the next couple of days. In addition to surface
outflow boundaries, embedded disturbance rotating around the
southern periphery of the upper low could aid in convective
development to the west of our area, with the steering flow
carrying the storms into our area. Should have a relative lull in
showers/storms later this morning, with an increase activity this
afternoon and evening. Carrying high chance to likely PoPs
tonight, as low-level jet and an influx of warm/ moist air helps
to sustain convection through the night.

With moderate instability and adequate vertical shear, severe
storms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds the
main threats. With some placement uncertainty on where the
greatest severe weather threat will be, held off at this time with
the mention of severe storms. Next shift can evaluate this further
and add a mention where needed. Moist axis remains in place over
our area, and locally heavy rainfall is again expected. Given the
convective trends during the past 24 hours, much of our area has
received heavy rainfall and the ground is becoming saturated in
some places. Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding concerns, so the Flash Flood Watch was expanded to
encompass all of West Central Texas, and is now in effect today
through tonight. Going with near persistence for temperatures.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

The active weather pattern will continue Memorial Day and Monday
night, with the highest rain chances shifting to our northern and
northeastern counties based on the forecast track of the upper
low. The main concerns continue with heavy rainfall and severe
storms. Made little changes to the forecast Tuesday through the
end of the week. The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms
is expected to be across our northern and eastern counties
Tuesday, with low rain chances Wednesday in our eastern counties. A
gradual warming trend is expected late in the week, when an upper
ridge is progged to slowly build east into West Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 80  66  80  65  81 /  60  60  50  60  40
San Angelo 	 81  66  83  66  86 /  60  60  40  40  20
Junction 	 81  66  82  66  83 /  40  50  40  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-261100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN SETTINGS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TORNADO          12 NNE BARNHART         31.28N 101.09W
05/24/2014                   IRION              TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A TORNADO CROSSING OPEN COUNTRY
            NEAR THE OILFIELDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400174

DOLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
114 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXZ072-073-077-168-251900-
MENARD TX-SCHLEICHER TX-TOM GREEN TX-CONCHO TX-
114 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
MENARD...SCHLEICHER...TOM GREEN AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 109 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT MCKAVETT...
OR ABOUT 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTOVAL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMP SOL MAYER BY 130 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3116 10035 3122 9989 3071 9990 3079 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 272DEG 28KT 3097 10021

DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
142 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TORNADO          41 WNW OZONA            30.93N 101.85W
05/24/2014                   CROCKETT           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN ON TOP OF THE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF HWY
            190.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400175

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TORNADO          38 WSW BARNHART         31.00N 101.79W
05/24/2014                   CROCKETT           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400176

DOLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
151 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXZ073-139-154-168>170-251930-
KIMBLE TX-MCCULLOCH TX-MASON TX-MENARD TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-
151 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
KIMBLE...MCCULLOCH...MASON...MENARD...COLEMAN AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 147 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EOLA TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MENARD...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF PAINT ROCK TO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EDEN BY 200 PM CDT
  US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE BY 205 PM CDT
  US-83 NEAR THE KIMBLE-MENARD COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF
  US-83 AND RANCH ROAD 1773...THE INTERSECTION OF US-87 AND RANCH
  ROAD 2134 AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND HIGHWAY 29 BY 210 PM
  CDT
  US-190 NEAR THE MENARD-MCCULLOCH COUNTY LINE AND SALT GAP BY 225 PM
  CDT
  MELVIN BY 230 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3075 10009 3147 10011 3156 10011 3158 9993
      3158 9972 3161 9972 3166 9922 3057 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 276DEG 26KT 3134 9992 3081 9993

DANIELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

TXZ073-139-140-154-155-168>170-252015-
KIMBLE TX-MCCULLOCH TX-MASON TX-MENARD TX-SAN SABA TX-COLEMAN TX-
BROWN TX-CONCHO TX-
228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
KIMBLE...MCCULLOCH...MASON...MENARD...SAN SABA...COLEMAN...BROWN AND
CONCHO COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3
MILES SOUTH OF DOOLE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SALINE...LONDON...PEAR VALLEY AND HEXT BY 240 PM CDT
  US-377 NEAR THE KIMBLE-MENARD COUNTY LINE...CALF CREEK AND THE
  INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH ROAD 1311 BY 245 PM CDT
  LONG MOUNTAIN...ERNA AND BRADY LAKE BY 250 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3166 9899 3051 9912 3065 9988 3155 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 274DEG 25KT 3135 9957 3078 9965

DANIELS