Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Strong to Severe thunderstorms were developing along and north of
an thunderstorm outflow boundary extending from Big Lake to San
Angelo to near Cross Plains at 23Z.

KSJT have the best potential for storms this evening, some of which
could produce large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Severe
storms to the southwest could follow outflow boundary northeast, and
affect KSJT, mainly after 1Z. Keeping VCTS at KABI through the TAF
period, and KSJT tonight and late Sunday afternoon.

MVFR stratus redevelops after midnight at all sites, rising to
VFR 18-19Z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
The main concern in the next 24 hours is the potential for severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Currently, a complex of
thunderstorms is moving across the Big Country. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail, strong damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall. An outflow boundary is located along a Water
Valley...to Big Lake...to McCamey line, and is showing signs of
slowing down. Additional convection is firing across West Texas, in
a very unstable atmosphere. This convection will have the potential
to move into mainly our western counties later this afternoon and
this evening, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for these areas
through 10 PM. Although large hail, damaging winds, and lightning
look to be the main threats, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially during the early evening hours. We have increased PoPs
across much of the area, ranging from likely west to low end chance
across the southeast counties. Several models indicate another
shortwave trough moving into West Texas early Sunday morning,
initiating additional convection, then eventually moving it into at
least the western half  of our area. Likely PoPs were continued
across the western half of the region, with higher PoPs shifting
east across the area during the morning hours. Given all of the
mesoscale boundaries currently across the area, a lot of uncertainty
remains on the exact placement and timing of these heavy rain
events.

Given the above mentioned factors, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for all of the Big Country and Concho Valley. An additional 1
to 3 inches...with some higher amounts...will be possible this
evening through Sunday evening. The main areas of concern are urban
areas and low lying areas, including low water crossing.

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
An active weather pattern is in store with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely and a few severe storms are
possible. Currently, a strong upper level low was located near the
Four Corners region(centered along the Arizona/New Mexico state
line). The upper level low will move slowly east across the southern
Rockies Sunday and then into the southern Plains early next week.
The models are pretty consistent on the track of the upper low. All
the models are still very wet across much of West Central Texas. The
ingredients for heavy rainfall include: lots of moisture(PWATs of
1.2 to 1.6 inches), low level southerly flow and convergence (850 MB
winds 35 to 45 knots), and significant diffluence at 250 MB.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are looking pretty good across
much of the area with locally higher amounts possible. Have a Flash
Flood Watch going until 7 PM Sunday. The Flash Flood Watch may have
to be extended possibly into Monday as thunderstorm complexes(MCS
activity) will continue. In addition, severe weather may be possible
Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The combination
of good instability(MLCAPES 1500 to 2000 J/KG) and bulk 0-6KM shear
values of 35 to 40 knots will yield a few severe storms. The main
hazards will be large hail...damaging winds and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

/Wednesday through Saturday/
A quieter weather pattern for middle to late next week. The
combination of abundant low level moisture and weak upper level
northwest flow may develop isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. However, will keep the forecast dry for now.
Expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  80  67  82  66 /  70  60  50  50  60
San Angelo 	 67  81  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  40  40
Junction 	 69  81  67  82  67 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...Haskell...
Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

14/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A THROCKMORTON...TO
ABILENE...TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
444 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ076-242230-
CROCKETT TX-
444 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 440 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MCCAMEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3108 10177 3081 10178 3081 10184 3087 10186
      3089 10189 3092 10189 3098 10199 3098 10201
      3099 10206 3098 10209 3100 10218 3103 10222
      3103 10229 3109 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 242DEG 27KT 3103 10212

DANIELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ064-065-072-242230-
STERLING TX-TOM GREEN TX-COKE TX-
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
STERLING...TOM GREEN AND COKE COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 9 MILES SOUTH OF BROOME...OR ABOUT 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF STERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  US-87 NEAR THE COKE-TOM GREEN COUNTY LINE BY 520 PM CDT
  BROOME AND WATER VALLEY BY 525 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3164 10105 3186 10086 3167 10056 3153 10086
      3153 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 221DEG 13KT 3165 10087

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
508 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ066-127-128-242245-
RUNNELS TX-TAYLOR TX-CALLAHAN TX-
508 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...TAYLOR AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 505 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NORTON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINTERS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING!

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  FIRE IGNITED BY LIGHTNING...
  LOCALIZED SHORT DURATION POWER OUTAGES...
  LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE INJURY OR DEATH TO PEOPLE REMAINING
 OUTDOORS...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WINTERS AND WINGATE BY 530 PM CDT
  PUMPHREY BY 540 PM CDT
  DRASCO...BRADSHAW AND LAKE WINTERS LAKE BY 545 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3232 9951 3208 9966 3208 9972 3200 9972
      3174 9989 3173 10023 3202 10023 3230 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 216DEG 12KT 3193 10007

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ066-139-250015-
RUNNELS TX-COLEMAN TX-
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS AND COLEMAN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 640 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NOVICE...OR
ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLEMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE COLEMAN BY 710 PM CDT
  US-283 NEAR THE COLEMAN-CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE BY 715 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3174 9959 3164 9979 3194 9977 3208 9962
      3208 9933 3208 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 207DEG 11KT 3199 9962

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
727 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             15 WNW MERTZON          31.34N 101.05W
05/24/2014  E1.75 INCH       IRION              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400171

JD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ139-250100-
COLEMAN TX-
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 724 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
LEADAY...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VOSS BY 735 PM CDT
  TALPA BY 755 PM CDT
  VALERA...FISK AND HORDS CREEK RESERVOIR BY 800 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3149 9960 3155 9967 3156 9967 3155 9968
      3158 9972 3181 9972 3199 9956 3182 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 212DEG 12KT 3164 9965