Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Springfield, MO

266 
WWUS53 KSGF 051440
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MOC009-051515-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-140605T1515Z/
BARRY MO-
940 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRY COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

AT 935 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM AURORA TO ROARING RIVER STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST 
AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASSVILLE...EXETER...MONETT...PURDY...SELIGMAN...WASHBURN AND
WHEATON.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES ROARING RIVER STATE PARK AND TABLE ROCK
LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

IF ON OR NEAR TABLE ROCK LAKE...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE TO 
SHELTER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK 
BY LIGHTNING. BOATS CAN BE SWAMPED BY LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN 
ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3652 9407 3693 9406 3692 9362 3682 9361
      3682 9357 3650 9358 3649 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 287DEG 55KT 3689 9362 3647 9385

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

CRAMER

476 
WWUS53 KSGF 051505
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MOC009-051515-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-140605T1515Z/
BARRY MO-
1005 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BARRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3652 9407 3693 9406 3692 9362 3682 9361
      3682 9357 3650 9358 3649 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1505Z 287DEG 55KT 3677 9316 3636 9340

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

Active morning of weather across area this morning. Training
convection extending from the Pittsburg, KS/Joplin, MO area
southeastward toward Branson has produced numerous reports of
hail and very heavy rainfall. Additional isolated storms have
redeveloped over south central Missouri.

Main forecast focus is the developing severe thunderstorm complex
over central Kansas. This system is quickly getting its act
together this morning and will continue to accelerate east,
closely following forward propagating system motion vectors
(currently at 50-60kt to the east southeast).

This convective complex will continue to move into a favorable
environment. There is no lack of thermo ahead of this system with
MUCAPE around/above 2000 J/kg from areas along and south of Nevada
to West Plains. MUCAPE will actually increase a bit this morning,
with the RUC suggesting around 3000 J/kg by the mid/late morning
hours. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kt will ensure continued storm
organization. While low level shear is a bit light/disorganized,
low level theta-e differences in the mid/upper 20s C are suggested
by the short term models which indicates good wind potential.
The weak low level shear does keep 0-3km shear vectors in the
20-25kt range (oriented west to east). This is not ideal for
mesovortex production, but it is still plausible to see
mesovorticies with any west to east surges embedded within the
line.

Locations most prone to seeing this squall line will be areas
(roughly) along and south of Nevada to West Plains. Timing wise,
it looks like this system will enter the western portions of the
outlook area by 8 AM, with a progressive acceleration to the east
through the morning hours. Current estimates place the line around
the highway 65 corridor around 10 AM, south central MO by noon.
These will definitely need to be revised as this system matures
and accelerates.

Hazards...the biggest risk will be wind gusts to 70mph. Localized
areas of stronger winds are possible, especially considering the
increase in low level theta-e differences. Hail will likely be
tough to come by, but a few stones to quarter size are possible.
At this point the tornado risk is on the low side given expected
0-3km shear vector orientation and strength. That said, we do have
multiple boundaries in place and line interactions are possible.
As a result, will continue with a few tornadoes possible.

Additional activity is expected tonight as another MCS looks to
develop from convection refiring over KS/OK. This will pose yet
another wind risk. If this does materialize as expected, a flash
flood watch will need to be considered.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

As has been advertised, Friday through (at least) the weekend will
feature a very active weather pattern. Shortwaves will pass
through a largely zonal flow in periodic fashion. 00z suite of
model agrees with the overall pattern in general. The devil, of
course, will be in the mesoscale details with respect to exact
positioning of the synoptic scale front and shear/instability
profiles.

Bottom line timing from 00z models. Scattered showers/storms are
expected to redevelop during the heat of the day Friday. A
convective complex passage Saturday (originating from the central
Plains). Additional thunderstorm complexes are possible Saturday
night into Sunday, although trust in details at this juncture is
low.

Heading into next week, the ECMWF and GEM produce a cutoff low
over the Midwest during the first half of the week. This will keep
our area unsettled with additional rainfall possible. The GFS is
an outlier keeping the pattern progressive. The current forecast
sides with the cutoff low. Temperatures will remain seasonable
from Friday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

The region is in a lull between storm systems with VFR ceilings at
the KSGF and KJLN terminals. Some areas of fog were impacting
portions of the area with MVFR to IFR visibilities noted at KBBG.
A severe storm system is expected to move across the region this
morning and into the early afternoon with MVFR to IFR visibilities
and strong gusty winds in storms.

Additional storms are expected to develop during the evening and
overnight with MVFR to IFR flight conditions expected as rain and
fog develop once again.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
552 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED TO ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO
  EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND ACCELERATE TO
  THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
  A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALIZED AREAS OF EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
  POSSIBLE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS AROUND OR AFTER 8 AM...MOVE INTO MISSOURI AROUND OR JUST
  AFTER 9 AM...REACH THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AFTER 10 AM AND MOVE
  INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MIDDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
  INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
  WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
  HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AREAS OF
  HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON
  THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
  OR LINE OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
824 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     HAIL             10 W COLUMBUS           37.17N 95.03W
06/05/2014  E0.88 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY IS RECEIVING HAIL AND WINDS TO
            50 MPH.

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
854 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     TSTM WND GST     CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
06/05/2014  E0 MPH           JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
857 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N JOPLIN              37.14N 94.51W
06/05/2014  M0 MPH           JASPER             MO   ASOS

            ASOS MEASURED 64 MPH WIND GUST AT JOPLIN AIRPORT

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
903 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE JOPLIN             37.06N 94.49W
06/05/2014                   JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIMBS DOWN ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N JOPLIN              37.14N 94.51W
06/05/2014  M64.00 MPH       JASPER             MO   ASOS

            ASOS MEASURED 64 MPH WIND GUST AT JOPLIN AIRPORT

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
905 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     TSTM WND GST     CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
06/05/2014  E0.00 MPH        JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

RKARDELL