Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2014

...Line of Severe Storms Expected Late Tonight into Thursday...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

The cold front has stalled across southern Missouri near the
highway 60 corridor. Storms will continue to develop and track
east along the front during the overnight hours as lift from the
front continues to kick up storms. Outflow boundaries are also
pushing south from this convection and expect storms to develop
and sag farther to the south tonight. The overall severe risk with
these storms is decreasing but a few of the stronger storms will
still be capable of producing dime to quarter size hail and winds
in excess of 50 mph. Nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning
strikes will also occur with these storms.

Greater concern for tonight into Thursday is convection currently across
northeastern Colorado, as it will form into a line and push to the east.
A very unstable airmass is in place as MUCape values across Kansas
are greater than 4000 J/kg. Decent theta-e differences are over
the area so a good cold pool will from and 0-3km bulk shear
vectors will be in favorable to maintain the line overnight into
Thursday. This line will follow forward propagating Corfidi
vectors with are to the east at 60 to 70kt tonight. This line of
storms will race across Kansas and will begin to push into
southeastern Kansas around sunrise with the storms pushing into
Missouri during the morning hours. The line will begin to push
more to the southeast once it pushes into Missouri.

Given the thermodynamics and wind shear this line will maintain
itself into the area with a strong bow echo likely. Expecting
winds up to 70 mph with this line and will monitor for the
potential for stronger winds. 0-3km bulk shear vectors weaken
slightly across the area and given the strong thermodynamics
expect this line to be slightly outflow dominate as it pushes into
the area, limiting the tornado risk with just very strong straight
line winds expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Morning)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

It continues to be a messy and low confidence forecast (especially
beyond 24 hours or so) for the region for the coming days.  As
mentioned in the above mesoscale section, the frontal boundary will
continue to sink south across the region this afternoon and evening, with
some convective potential across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon.

Later this evening, nearly every piece of model guidance available
develops convection associated with this boundary in the vicinity of
the U.S. 60 corridor and sinks it to the south toward northern
Arkansas closer to midnight. Lift across the front will be weak this
evening, which does bring into question just how much convection
will be able to develop, but it is hard to ignore such a strong
model consensus.  Given more than ample instability and deep layer
shear, and 0-3 KM theta-e differentials pushing 30K across this
region, severe storms will be a distinct possibility IF convection
does form.  Wind gusts will be the main concern, though some severe
hail will be possible.  Very high freezing levels will limit the
overall hail risk, however.

Later tonight, an MCS is expected to form over west central Kansas
and move east toward the region during the overnight hours. Forward
propagating Corfidi vectors suggest an easterly track to the MCS
until it begins to approach the western fringes of the CWA, at which
point it should start a turn to the southwest.  Timing and exact
track will be highly dependent on where exactly the MCS takes shape
this evening; we should have a much better handle on the details
once it forms and begins to move east.  For now, best indications
are for the MCS to be moving into our southeastern Kansas counties
around 12-13Z tomorrow morning, then moving toward the U.S. 65
corridor closer to 15Z.  For now, it appears that instability/shear
will be high enough for this MCS to be strong to severe as it moves
into the region; am not expecting anything too crazy at this point,
but some severe wind gusts will be possible.  Weak 0-3 KM shear
vectors suggest that spin up tornado potential will be low with this
system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Convection should become more scattered in nature Thursday afternoon
and evening, with renewed development overhead Thursday night and
early Friday as the low level jet increases across the region.  Some
severe weather will remain possible through this period, conditional
on exact timing and location of convection.

From Friday onward, the forecast becomes increasingly low confidence
with time, given the impact of each round of convection on
subsequent development.  Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night
all appear at this point to be relatively similar to tonight and
Thursday, with increased potential of organized MCS activity during
the overnight and early morning hours, with more scattered
convection during the day.  Severe weather will very much be
possible during this time, both with daytime convection as well as
overnight MCSs.  Exact details in terms of threats and timing will
be a mesoscale forecast challenge, and interests across the region
are encouraged to check back often for forecast refinements.

Along with the severe weather threat through the weekend, heavy rain
may become an increasing concern over the next few days.  With a
very tropical airmass in place across the region (PWAT values able 2
standard deviations above normal for this time of year), very heavy
rainfall rates can be expected with the stronger convection.  We do
have decent infiltration capacity for now given recent drought
conditions, especially across the western portions of the CWA, where
rainfall is expected to be the heaviest.  That said, with the
possibility of 1 to locally 3"+ inches of rain with each MCS moving
through, that capacity may quickly be used up.  No Flood or Flash
Flood Watches are planned for now, though depending on the exact
track of convection over the coming days, a Watch may be needed at
some point.  For now, will continue with the mention in the HWO.

Medium range model guidance continues to indicate a stronger
shortwave moving through the area Sunday into Monday, which should
sweep the front south of the region, at least for a few days.  Along
with lower rain chances, this looks to give the region a break from
the very high humidity for at least a short time.

Beyond the beginning of next workweek, the overall synoptic pattern
looks to remain fairly active for the region, with the area
remaining between a strong upper level ridge over northern Mexico
and an active series of shortwaves moving across the Great Lakes and
northern Plains.  This would suggest regular rain chances along with
relatively seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A frontal boundary is
currently laid out from west to east across southern Missouri this
evening and will not move much through the overnight hours. The
front interacting with a unstable airmass is resulting in storms
develop and moving east along the front. This will continue into
the overnight hours with the storms sagging south through the
night. Brief MVFR conditions, frequent lighting, and  brief heavy
rainfall will occur in these storms overnight. Some brief gusty
winds and dime size hail will be possible in a few of the stronger
storms.

Additional thunderstorms are currently developing across
northeastern Colorado. These storms will develop into a line of
storms and race across Kansas tonight and start pushing into
southwestern Missouri early Thursday morning. A very unstable
airmass will remain in place overnight and very strong winds will
be possible with this line of storms. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur within this line briefly.

Additional storms may then develop Thursday afternoon, but will
have to see how much cloud cover and how much the area is worked
over by the morning convection before having higher confidence in
storms developing Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
944 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
944 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
  CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR
  LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
  TONIGHT AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG AND NEAR THE
  FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER
  SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A FEW OF THESE
  STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF
  60 MPH THE MAIN SEVERE RISKS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  WILL ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THESE STORMS.

  LATE TONIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
  FORM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
  REGION...APPROACHING FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE
  THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
  THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ALONG
  WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
  ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS
  ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX.

  PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
  WILL BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF EACH
  INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OR LINE OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ077-088-089-094-050400-
BARTON MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JASPER...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1016 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAPLE GROVE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALBA...AVILLA...BOSTON...CARYTOWN...
DUDENVILLE...EVERTON...GOLDEN CITY...JASPER...LOCKWOOD...MAPLE
GROVE...MEINERT...MILLER...NECK CITY...PENNSBORO...PURCELL...RED OAK
AND SOUTH GREENFIELD.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN
BARTON AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MILLER...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3741 9437 3740 9362 3736 9362 3711 9390
      3724 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 286DEG 27KT 3728 9412

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ098-106-050415-
OREGON MO-SHANNON MO-
1027 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1025 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF GREER...OR 23 MILES EAST OF
MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GREER AND WILDERNESS.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3665 9112 3665 9113 3686 9152 3701 9137
      3695 9121 3684 9122 3683 9112 3682 9111
      3678 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 296DEG 20KT 3688 9130

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1054 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     FLOOD            JASPER                  37.34N 94.30W
06/04/2014                   JASPER             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            K HIGHWAY HAD SEVERAL SECTIONS WITH WATER OVER THE ROAD

&&

RABERDING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ090-091-095-050500-
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-
1124 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

AT 1123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NIXA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BATTLEFIELD...BRUNER...FREMONT HILLS...
GALLOWAY...LINDEN...NIXA...OLDFIELD...OZARK...ROGERSVILLE...SOUTHERN
SPRINGFIELD AND SPARTA.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3712 9287 3693 9298 3708 9343 3720 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 293DEG 31KT 3711 9323

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ098-106-050530-
OREGON MO-SHANNON MO-
1140 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN
SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIRCH TREE...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3709 9103 3708 9121 3684 9122 3682 9111
      3670 9112 3690 9166 3722 9165 3712 9101
      3710 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 293DEG 26KT 3697 9143

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ088-094-050545-
JASPER MO-LAWRENCE MO-
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1156 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVILLA...OR 10 MILES EAST OF CARTHAGE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVILLA...FREISTATT...HOBERG...LA
RUSSELL...MOUNT VERNON...REEDS AND STOTTS CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 48 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3718 9375 3698 9381 3712 9424 3725 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 288DEG 22KT 3717 9411

GRIFFIN