Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
REACHING THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PATTERN CONTINUES FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY THE COLDER 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AND POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION.

MODELS BRING MAIN AXIS OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BEST TIMING FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...ROUGHLY LINING UP
WITH THE DRY SLOT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD...WILL BE IN MORNING ON
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THIS TIME
FRAME BUT OTHERWISE LIKELY OR HIGHER PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL RAMP THE PROBABILITY UP AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. STARTING OUT MILD ON THURSDAY
SO EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GET WARM ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SLOW TO MOVE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY BLUE
RIDGE EAST ON FRIDAY GIVEN SOME WEAK LEE TROFFINESS. HOWEVER
EXACTLY WHERE AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP
REMAINS IFFY GIVING TIMING ISSUES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES SO
BASICALLY KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH EMBEDDED LOW LIKELYS FAR WEST
THURSDAY EVENING AND VA PIEDMONT FRIDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS TO REMAIN
SEASONAL BUT MUGGY UNDER LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS.

NEXT WEAK UPSTREAM 5H TROF WILL FINALLY BUMP THE RESIDUAL
UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FAINT SURFACE COOL
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTH AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH WHILE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE
SE AROUND THE HIGH ELSW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY
SOUTHERN...SW SECTIONS SATURDAY AND MOSTLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH
SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BIT LOWER BEHIND THE PASSING FAINT
BOUNDARY SATURDAY ESPCLY NORTH WHERE MAY GET INTO A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW OTRW RANGE FROM 75-80 WEST TO MID 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A WEAK SURGE OF DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE
A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. 5H HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE SE STATES
ALLOWING A MORE SW TO EVENTUAL WESTERLY TRAJECTORY TO TAKE PLACE.
THIS GIVEN LACK OF MUCH SURFACE SUPPORT SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION
BECOME MORE DIURNAL/ISOLATED BY MID WEEK WITH ONLY A WEAK LEE
TROUGH OUT EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK PERTURBATION...REMNANT OF AN OLD 5H
VORT...SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGING ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH
MAY ENHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO KEPT OVERALL CHANCE POPS
ALTHOUGH COULD BE LESS PENDING LATER RUNS. MAIN ASPECT FOR THE
EXTENDED WILL BE WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 85H
VALUES RISE TO ABOVE +20C. THIS SUPPORTS MOSTLY 80S SUNDAY-
MONDAY...THEN SOME LOW/MID 90S EAST AS MOISTURE DECREASES SOME
AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE DOWNSLOPISH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS REGIONWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH STORMS CLUSTERING TOGETHER
IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS.

SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN FOR KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES AFTER
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS.  INTO
THE WEEKEND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LONGER
PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AWOS EQUIPMENT FOR BLACKSBURG VA...KBCB...HAS BEEN UPGRADED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

VAZ007-009-WVZ042>045-120400-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH THE
SO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

NCZ004>006-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-120400-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

NCZ001>003-018>020-120400-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

AFTER THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             FOREST                  37.37N 79.28W
06/11/2014  E1.00 INCH       BEDFORD            VA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
551 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE MT AIRY            36.89N 79.15W
06/11/2014                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW HURT               37.11N 79.32W
06/11/2014                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN

&&

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
625 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N EVINGTON            37.29N 79.28W
06/11/2014                   CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE DOWN. POWER OUTAGE.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE GOLD HILL         37.66N 78.35W
06/11/2014                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON THE ROOF OF A RESIDENCE ALONG JAMES MADISON
            HIGHWAY.

&&

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

NCZ005-006-VAZ032-043-044-112345-
ROCKINGHAM NC-CASWELL NC-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
649 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF LEASBURG TO NEAR MONROETON...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
  40 MPH.

* PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
  ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAYFIELD...
  PROVIDENCE...
  DANVILLE CITY...
  BLAIRS...
  AND EDEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7986 3649 8003 3654 8003 3654 8007
      3671 8020 3680 7978 3679 7976 3681 7974
      3692 7924 3670 7918 3655 7922 3654 7914
      3625 7915 3624 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 159DEG 35KT 3632 7910 3621 7971

KK